We will probably achieve artificial superintelligence in a few thousand days

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, recently described his vision for the future of human artificial intelligence in his personal blog. In this article, he paints a picture of human progress accelerating thanks to artificial intelligence. According to Altman, artificial superintelligence (ASI) will emerge in the next few thousand days.

In a post titled “The Age of Artificial Intelligence,” Sam Altman says:

“It is possible that we will have (artificial) super-intelligence in the next few thousand days; “It may take longer, but I’m sure we’ll get there.”

OpenAI’s current goal is to create artificial general intelligence (AGI), which refers to technology that can match human intelligence in many tasks without requiring special training. On the other hand, there is ASI or artificial super-intelligence, which goes beyond AGI and can be considered a level of machine intelligence that can dramatically outperform humans in any intellectual task, even to an extent that is incomprehensible to us.

Sam Altman’s vision of the future age of artificial intelligence

In his article, Sam Altman does not mention an exact date for the emergence of this new era and only says that in the next few thousand days, we will reach ASI. However, we can estimate that we will reach this technology within a decade; Because 2 thousand days will be about 5.5 years, 3 thousand days will be about 8.2 years and 4 thousand days will be about 11 more years.

In his article, Sam Altman is very optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence, and even the image he chose for his article is a rural and colorful road, but he says:

“If we want to put artificial intelligence in the hands of more people, we need to reduce the cost of computing and increase its (capacity) (which requires a lot of energy and chips). “If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that will be fought over and become a tool in the hands of the rich.”

Elsewhere in the article, Altman considers our current era to be the dawn of the “Age of Intelligence”; He places the present age after the stone age, the agricultural age and the industrial age. Altman sees the success of deep learning algorithms as the catalyst for this new era, stating simply: “How did we get to the threshold of the next leap in welfare? In 4 words: Deep learning worked.”

The CEO of OpenAI predicts that AI assistants will become more powerful every day, and eventually everyone will have their own personal AI that can help people do almost anything they can imagine. He says AI will advance education, healthcare, software development and other fields.

In part of his post, the CEO of OpenAI wrote: “Remarkable achievements, including solving the climate problem, establishing space colonies and discovering all the mysteries of physics, will eventually be achieved.”

However, Sam Altman’s very positive views on artificial intelligence in X have also had critics. Bloomberg columnist Matthew Yglesia says, “It’s interesting that Sam Altman doesn’t even care about the concerns about the dangers of human existence anymore, the only downside he thinks about is the adjustment issues in the labor market.” »

OpenAI Two weeks ago, a new artificial intelligence model named o1 also introduced that this company’s first model of a series of models with the ability to reason to answer more complex questions.