What will artificial intelligence do to jobs by 2030?

Does anyone really know what AI will do to our jobs in four years, four months, or even four weeks? Predictions in this field have a wide range; For example, the CEO of Anthropic believes that artificial intelligence will affect everything; On the other hand, there are more optimistic analyzes that say that there is no job apocalypse. But in the midst of this commotion, the most logical thing to do is to consider possible scenarios. The World Economic Forum (WEF) has drawn four different images of the labor market in 2030 with the help of senior strategy managers, so that we can better prepare for this future.

First scenario: Human conductor of artificial intelligence models

In the first scenario, although many existing jobs disappear, new jobs appear at an incredible rate. In this bright future, humans become the “orchestrators” or leaders of an army of machines, managing an array of intelligent tools. The result of this interaction is the fundamental transformation of industries, business models and work flows, which will lead to a significant increase in productivity and innovation. In this case, artificial intelligence does not replace humans, but is a powerful tool in his hand to create new values.

The second scenario: the frightening growth of artificial intelligence

The second scenario is a bit scarier. In this scenario, AI advances exponentially, but the workforce cannot keep up. To keep up with the competition, businesses are rushing towards automation, replacing employees faster than training systems can teach new skills. In this chaotic world, agent-driven artificial intelligence will dominate, but the risks of mass unemployment and declining public trust in technology also grow exponentially.

The third scenario: constructive cooperation between humans and artificial intelligence

Researchers at the World Economic Forum also envision a third scenario in which humans and machines learn to co-exist productively. In this case, the hype and false excitement of the 2020s has subsided and given its place to pragmatic integration. In this scenario, transformations happen incrementally, and teams of humans and artificial intelligence redefine value chains. The key to success in this model is to invest heavily in education, digital infrastructure, and laws governing AI so that technology only plays the role of enhancing human capabilities.

Fourth scenario: Lack of skilled labor

In the fourth scenario, progress stalls and we face frustration and dysfunction. Lack of critical skills in the workforce and disappointing productivity are causing businesses to turn to automation simply to fill the talent gap. In this case, occupational displacement mainly affects routine roles, while the value of manual and commercial work increases. Hopes for AI prosperity are fading, and the gap in technology adoption is exacerbating inequality and splitting the economy.

How should we prepare ourselves for the labor market of 2030?

Regardless of which scenario is realized, the researchers have provided strategies for preparation in their research report. The first thing is to take small steps and learn from experiences; You should conduct controlled experiments to learn from failures at low cost. Another important point is to encourage human and artificial intelligence cooperation instead of replacement; Because this work increases confidence and resilience.

Organizations also need to invest in data infrastructure, because AI is worthless without reliable data. And finally, the organizational culture must change. Without an agile and curious culture, even the most expensive and advanced technologies fail. However, remember that the impact of AI will not be the same everywhere, and its convergence with robotics can affect both desk-based and manual workers.