Probability of winning the majority of the US House of Representatives in 2026 for the Democrats

According to RCO News Agency, according to recent polls, the Democrats are ahead of their rival party, the Republicans, to regain control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 elections, but the size of their possible majority is still unclear.

By publishing this article, Newsweek wrote in a report: “Whit Shelton,” the spokesperson of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told Newsweek citing polls that American public opinion has turned away from the Republicans. All House seats will be up for grabs in November 2026, with Democrats hoping to win a majority for the first time since the 2020 election.

Generally, the popularity of the ruling party decreases after mid-term elections. The decline in the popularity of Donald Trump, the Republican president of the United States, has also occurred after returning to the White House in January 2025 due to concerns about the state of the economy and the cost of living. About Democrats plan to turn the election into a referendum on Trump’s policies, including tariffs. Also, changing the boundaries of electoral districts can affect the results; For example, states such as Texas and Ohio have made changes in favor of Republicans and California in favor of Democrats.

Currently, Democrats are leading in public opinion polls, but the extent of that lead varies from poll to poll. A recent poll by The Economist and Yoga Institute showed Democrats leading among registered voters by about 3 percentage points (43% to 40%). However, the final outcome will depend on factors such as Trump’s popularity, the success of Democrats in turning the election into a vote for him, and the final results of redistricting races.

The American media continued to write: The poll of the Atlas Intel Institute showed more favorable results for the Democrats, which indicated a lead of about 16 percent of the Democrats (54 percent to 38 percent).

Fabrizio Ward’s survey also showed a 7% lead for the Democrats in the popular vote (45% to 38%).

Meanwhile, the Qantas Insights poll showed a closer race, recording just a 2 percentage point lead for the Democrats (43% to 41%).

The American people have turned away from the Republicans

Referring to the history of control of the House of Representatives by the Democrats, Newsweek wrote: Democrats last won the majority of the House of Representatives in 2020 by winning 222 seats against the Republicans’ 213 seats. Currently, the Republicans hold a narrow majority with 220 seats compared to the Democrats’ 213 seats. According to Cook Political report, 208 seats are in the hands of the Democrats and 210 seats are in the hands of the Republicans. Five Democratic-held seats and 12 Republican-held seats are classified as hotly contested, indicating a close battle for the majority.

Referring to the “unfulfilled promises” of the Republicans, Whit Shelton said: “The data proves: the American people have turned away from the unfulfilled promises of the House Republicans. People are unhappy about rising costs, and voters want leaders who will fight for them, not the richest minority. On the eve of the mid-term elections, the House Democrats have a better message and stronger candidates, and for that reason, they are in an excellent position to regain the majority.”

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