ceding or keeping Donbass; Zelensky’s difficult dilemma

According to RCO News Agency, according to the peace plan presented by the United States, Ukraine must withdraw from parts of the Donbass that is still under its control, and in return, after the end of the war, receive general and not very specific security guarantees, but this proposal has faced strong resistance both among Ukrainian politicians and the people of this country.

According to Le Monde’s report, the peace talks are moving faster these days. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Tuesday after his short trip to London, Brussels and Rome that he has sent a revised version of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan to Washington. This new version – which has not yet been published – was prepared in consultation with his European allies. Meanwhile, the president of Ukraine is under serious pressure from Trump to accept the agreement as soon as possible, which was considered to be detrimental to Kiev. An official source also told the Financial Times that Trump hopes to finalize an agreement by Christmas.

According to the American plan, Ukraine should withdraw its forces from the eastern region of Donbas; A region that Russia has declared as one of its main goals since the beginning of the war. President “Vladimir Putin” once again said that if Ukraine is not ready to hand over Donbass, Russia will control these areas “by force”.

But the reality on the ground is that despite the recent advances, the Russian army has not been able to capture the whole of Donetsk – which together with Luhansk forms the Donbass – in the last three and a half years. For this reason, Zelensky has always opposed the idea of ​​surrender without resistance. Zelensky also emphasized on Monday night: “There is no doubt that Russia wants us to give up part of our regions, but we do not intend to give up anything.” This principle is the reason for our fighting.”

He said that neither legally nor morally is it allowed to leave the areas where about 200 thousand people still live.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political science expert and director of the “Penta” political studies center in Kyiv, said: “Such a decision by Zelensky will be seen inside Ukraine as a capitulation to Russia.”

He believes that if the President of Ukraine is forced to withdraw, “this could create a wave of widespread protests and even the risk of a deep political crisis.”

Fesenko reminded that any peace agreement must finally be approved by the Ukrainian parliament. Currently, almost all the country’s political fronts are against the withdrawal of troops from Donbass without receiving clear security guarantees from America and Europe; Guarantees that should prevent possible Russian attacks after the end of the war.

Referring to Washington’s pressure on the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Arif, a representative of Zelensky’s critic, said: “The Americans think they can use the weakened Zelensky, but the final decision rests with the parliament.”

He emphasized that this country cannot give up even one meter of its soil; Because this can lead to demands in other areas. He referred to areas such as Kherson and Zaporizhia; The two southern regions, which Russia only owns a part of, but claims full sovereignty over them from September 2022.

Zelensky’s insistence on not handing over stems more from general sentiment in Ukrainian society than anything else; A society that, despite being worn out after nearly four years of war, is still against the idea of ​​ceding territories. About 71 percent of people “strongly” disagree with the issue, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), although this figure is down slightly from May and June polls (78%).

According to Anton Grochetskyi, director of KIIS, the only way Zelensky can convince the parliament to withdraw from Donbass is to provide very strict security guarantees from the West: “If the guarantees are 100% guaranteed that Russia will never attack Ukraine again, then maybe the parliament can agree to the withdrawal of troops from Donbass.”

For Ukrainians, handing over a region that Russia has not been able to fully capture in three and a half years despite heavy losses, is considered to be the loss of the country’s first line of defense. This area is one of the most fortified parts of the front and is protected by a network of fortified towns and villages, open fields and deep anti-tank ditches.

Yehor Chernov, a representative of the ruling party and the Parliamentary Committee on Security and National Defense of Ukraine, said: “The Russians are trying to convince our allies that they have enough resources to completely capture Donbass, but they have been fighting for these strong areas for years and have not succeeded. Handing over these areas means opening the way for Russia’s future advances.”

Arif believes that the only way to prevent such a danger is to create a neutral and civilian buffer zone; A proposal that was also proposed in Donald Trump’s 28-point plan. However, he warned that even with strong security guarantees, such a “compromise solution” could lead to serious divisions within the country: “Part of the military will never forgive this.”

In addition to the military aspect, the moral aspect of the issue is also heavy for the Ukrainians. Hundreds of thousands of people have fought to defend this region and many have lost their lives or their homes. Grochetsky explained in this regard: “Many were killed there or lost everything. That’s why we can’t just get out of there.”

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