Harris’ significant lead over Trump in early voter polls

According to RCO News Agency, several companies including “ABC News/Ipsos”, “New York Times/Sienna College” and “CNN” conducted surveys asking respondents who identified themselves as participants in early voting for the 2024 US presidential election. and these polls have shown a range of advantages from 19 to 29 percent for Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, over Donald Trump, her Republican rival.

These advantages are even more than the advantages that were registered in the polls in the days before the 2016 presidential election for “Hillary Clinton”, the then Democratic presidential candidate, over “Donald Trump”, the Republican candidate in that election; They showed a range of 8 to 16 percent superiority for Clinton.

In polls in late 2020, when Democrats welcomed mail-in voting, then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden showed a larger advantage, while earlier Donald Trump opposed mail-in voting for the 2020 election, and his supporters He asked them not to participate in this form of voting.

The latest polls ahead of Tuesday’s US election show Harris with a significant lead in key states where the two major parties are evenly matched and hard to predict.

Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show Kamala Harris leading among early voters in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. is

The only lead recorded for Donald Trump among this group of voters in key states came from a CNN poll in Nevada, which showed Trump leading by 6 percentage points.

According to the “Telegraph” newspaper, although Trump opposed holding early and postal voting four years ago, claiming that it was vulnerable to fraud and manipulation, this time, he and the Republicans changed their approach and encouraged their supporters to vote. before the final stage on Tuesday.

At the same time, Republicans and Trump supporters are excited to see the increase in the level of their supporters in early voting, as Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur who supports Trump, said: Trump is moving towards a landslide victory. does

Musk argued that the number of participants in Pennsylvania mail-in ballots for the 2024 election so far, and comparing it with the number of participants in this type of voting at the same time in the 2020 election, shows that 32 percent of early voters are now Republican, while in 2020 it is The rate was 21%.

According to the Telegraph’s analysis, given the greater encouragement of the Democrats to participate in the early voting and not leave the work to the final day, more votes are registered for them mainly in the early stage.

Also, the group of American women voters has already shown more favor to Kamala Harris to become the first female president of the United States, and so far they have participated in early voting in higher numbers than male voters.

Surveys by the Center known as the “Laboratory of Elections” affiliated with the University of Florida have shown that among the 60 million voters who participated in the early stage of the 2024 US elections, 54% were women.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris has a 12 percent lead over Trump among female voters in October.

On the other hand, experts have warned that the data related to the early voting stage should not be interpreted in an extreme way, because the statistical samples of those who say that they have participated in the early stage so far have a higher error rate.

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