Less than 13 hours until Bitcoin halving; Predictions and opinions of big companies

According to the data Google Trends On April 18, 2024 (30 April), the search term popularity Bitcoin halving reached its highest level. Nigeria, Netherlands, Switzerland and Cyprus have shown the most interest in Bitcoin halving.

We are less than 13 hours away from the Bitcoin halving, but what are the opinions of leading institutions, users and thought leaders about this event? Bitcoin halving is an event in which Mining reward Each block is halved. This event occurs every 4 years and has a significant impact on Bitcoin supply and demand has Prominent experts around the world have different opinions about the effect of having on Bitcoin price have Some believe that this event will lead to a significant price increase, while others believe that the impact will be short-lived.

Coinbase

Coinbase: With the introduction of Bitcoin ETF, the role of halvings may become less.

According to the report of the second quarter of 2024 of Coinbase and Glassnode, Current dynamics of the Bitcoin market Compared to past halvings, it is significantly more mature, which may reduce the direct impact of newly mined bitcoins on the market price. This change is mainly due to increased institutional demand and widespread adoption Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). is

While Miners Adding around 900 Bitcoins to the market daily, Bitcoin ETFs tend to buy more and thus have a significant impact on market supply and liquidity levels. In addition, Bitcoin ETFs may cause large inflows and outflows of capital, thereby affecting market volatility. These changes can significantly affect price stability and market sentiment, often independent of traditional supply and demand constraints.

In short, the flows of Bitcoin ETFs have had a significant impact on the availability and demand of this digital currency, and this trend will continue in the future. The report also states that spot bitcoin ETFs have grown the fastest among all exchange-traded funds in history. Allocating a small amount of capital to digital currencies can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns. From April 2019 to March 2024, the traditional return of 40.60 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) was 33.3%. But by adding only 3% of digital currency, the yield increases to 52.9% and by adding 5% of digital currency, the yield increases to 67.0%.

Binance

Binance: Surveys show people are optimistic about Bitcoin halving.

Binance Exchange has predicted the following in its recent report:

1. Bitcoin halving is done with the purpose of regulating the supply of new tokens of this digital currency, which has historically affected the dynamics of the token supply and market sentiment and its acceptance.

2. Halvings tend to increase the popularity of Bitcoin, leading to higher price growth and adoption. They also fuel debates about blockchain technology, the dynamics of the Bitcoin network, and cryptocurrencies as a distinct asset class.

3. Although historical patterns show that in the months following a halving event, the price of Bitcoin increased and its adoption rate expanded, it is important to note that the 2024 halving appears to be unprecedented in several important ways.

Binance survey

According to the latest Binance research, investors’ interest in digital currencies is increasingly increasing ahead of the global Bitcoin halving event. The survey, which was conducted with more than 2,000 Australian cryptocurrency investors, shows that more than 80% of respondents believe the upcoming halving will have a positive impact on the industry, while more than half of them expect an outright increase in the price of bitcoin. They have coins as a result of this event.

Ben Rose, general manager of Binance Australia and New Zealand, said that the halving had a positive impact on Bitcoin trading and that almost 80% of Australian Binance users plan to increase their Bitcoin holdings in the near future.

Grayskill

Greyscale: Miners may sell their bitcoins in the short term to cover losses and reduce the price.

Based on the analysis of asset management company Grayscale, reports indicate that fundamental changes in the balance of supply and demand of Bitcoin, especially with the upcoming halving event, can have a greater impact on the price of this digital currency.

Historically, halving events are usually accompanied by a cycle of rising prices. However, a new factor called exchange-traded funds will also affect Bitcoin’s performance at the 2024 halving event. This report states:

In addition to overall positive on-chain fundamentals, Bitcoin’s market structure is favorable for the post-halving price.

The Grayscale report notes that the current amount of new coins mined per block (mining reward) is 6.25 bitcoins, which is roughly equivalent to $14 billion annually based on a price of $43,000. In other words, to maintain current prices, a buying pressure worth $14 billion must be created in the same period of time. The report says:

After the halving, these demands will be halved: the supply of new coins is 3.125 BCoins per block, which is equivalent to a reduction of $7 billion per year, effectively reducing the selling pressure.

After the halving, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins per block. To cope with cost pressure, miners are usually forced to sell some of their mined bitcoins. This issue can increase the supply of Bitcoin in the short term and put downward pressure on the price.

Nine newly launched spot bitcoin ETF products launched by Wall Street may act as hedging tools against miners’ selling pressure, Grayscale says. This report states:

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could significantly absorb the selling pressure and potentially restructure the Bitcoin market by creating a steady source of new demand, which would benefit prices.

Also, the investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, warned its clients in a report not to rely too much on past Bitcoin halving patterns. This report states:

Historically, the first three halvings have been accompanied by an increase in the price of Bitcoin, although the timing of the all-time high (ATH) has varied significantly. Given the current macroeconomic conditions, the past should be viewed more cautiously. Direct inferences of cycles and halving effects based on past data can be misleading.

Beatwise

Bitwise: If the previous patterns repeat, Bitcoin will be volatile or even bearish in the short term after the halving.

Asset management company Bitwise (Bitwise) also announced that historically, the price trend of Bitcoin in the month after the halving has not been very satisfactory. In an article published on April 16, Bitwise noted that the price of Bitcoin was almost flat in the month after the previous 3 halvings, but in the following year, the price has at least tripled.

Among these events, in the month after the halving in 2012, Bitcoin grew by only 9%, but in the following year, we saw its price jump by 8,839%. A similar situation occurred in the halving of 2016: Bitcoin fell by 10% a month later, and in 2017, with an increase of 285%, it reached the ceiling of $20,000; Likewise, in the month following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose 6% and then gained 548% over the next year. Beatwise wrote:

The data are limited, but show an interesting pattern; Where market prices seem to underestimate the long-term impact of halvings.

JPMorgan

JPMorgan: Bitcoin halving news has been anticipated and we will probably have a temporary drop after the halving.

JPMorgan Chase said in a research note on Tuesday that recent weakness in shares of bitcoin mining companies presents an attractive opportunity for investors ahead of the bitcoin halving. The report considers the current situation as a strong entry point for investment in this area.

This report suggests that part of the usual upward trend after the halving is probably already included in the price of Bitcoin.

Specifically, the company announced that overvalued shares of Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Iris Energy (IREN) is bullish because these companies offer attractive relative valuations. Analysts wrote:

As the Bitcoin halving approaches, we expect increased volatility and trading volume in Bitcoin and mining-related stocks.

Bernstein

Bernstein: Temporarily reducing the upward trend but restarting for the price of $150,000

Analysts of the research and brokerage company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory after the halving and reiterated its target price of $150,000 by the end of 2025. Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday:

We expect Bitcoin’s uptrend to slow down. Additionally, we believe that Bitcoin integration with physical-backed exchanges as well as partnerships with Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) will continue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin through 2025. However, by then, Bitcoin will reach its highest figure of $150,000 in this period.

cryptodatacom

Cryptodatacom: Short-term decline; But an important event for the long-term trend of Bitcoin.

The CEO of digital currency company Crypto.com recently expressed his views on the Bitcoin halving event. He noted that during the event, the market may experience selling pressure for Bitcoin, but emphasized that the event will support the price of Bitcoin in the long run.