Predicting the Future of the Persian Gulf Coral Habits until the end of the century – | Iranian and world news

According to research conducted by researchers at the Research Institute, coral reefs are among the most important marine ecosystems formed in the Persian Gulf under special temperature and salinity conditions. The high sensitivity of corals to climate change and human pressures has doubled the need for scientific management to protect this valuable ecosystem and the region’s biodiversity.

In a new study, researchers at the National Institute of Oceanology and Atmospheric Sciences Using Modeling Maxent They forecast the possible distribution of the Persian Gulf Coral habitats over the years 1 to 2 years. These predictions based on the scenarios of the common routes Social -economic ( SSPS) Simulates the potential future of the world based on demographic, economic, environmental and energy trends. Scenarios SSP In fact, they are “possible pictures of the future”. Each of the different conditions for the world considers: a sustainable future with the cooperation of countries and reduced pollution (SSP1), Up to a challenging world with greater consumption of fossil fuels and a sharp increase in greenhouse gases (SSP5). This framework helps scientists to measure the consequences of climate change in different conditions and provide better environmental protection strategies.

The results show that, according to water quality indicators, coral habitats in the current situation can be present in an area of ​​about 6,000 square kilometers from the Persian Gulf in terms of potential habitat desirability. In an optimistic scenario SSP1 (Sustainability route) This area is slightly reduced to about 2,000 square kilometers. Scenario SSP3 (Challenge for adaptation) Predicts the potential increase in habitat by up to 5 %, while in a pessimistic scenario SSP5 (Fossil fuel -based development), a sharp drop of 2 % and habitat components are likely.

Amir Judge LuThe supervisor of the research project emphasizes that measures such as continuous monitoring, coral renovation, human activity control, conservation areas and training of local communities are essential to protect this sensitive ecosystem. According to the researchers, the use of scientific data and management based on future scenarios can play a key role in preserving and revitalizing the Persian Gulf corals.

This research is an important step towards understanding the future of coral water and planning for sustainable development and protecting the region’s biodiversity.