Volcanic eruption, a serious threat to life on earth

Scientists warn about the occurrence of a huge volcanic eruption in this century, which humanity is not prepared to deal with. Dr. Marcus Stoffel, a professor of climatology, warns that such an event could create climate chaos similar to the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. This massive eruption sent 24 cubic miles of gas, ash and rock into the Earth’s atmosphere and caused a drastic drop in global temperatures.

According to the environmental service of Tekna Technology News Media, following this eruption, agricultural products were destroyed, famine spread, diseases spread and tens of thousands of people died. Unlike the year without a summer that followed the eruption of Tambora, a supervolcano in the 21st century will exacerbate the disruptions caused by human dependence on fossil fuels.

“The effects could be even worse than in 1815,” explains geologist Dr. Michael Rampino. “The world is more unstable now.” Ironically, greenhouse gases released over the past century could make the consequences of such eruptions even cooler. Volcanologist Dr. Thomas Aubrey’s research shows that a hotter and more turbulent atmosphere spreads sulfur dioxide gas and the resulting sulfate particles faster and intensifies its cooling effect.

Wider dispersion of these compounds, which reflect sunlight, increases the cooling effect by reducing the probability of their collision and aggregation. “The tiny, bright particles are the ideal size to scatter sunlight very effectively,” says Anja Schmidt, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Cambridge.

A 2021 study he and Dr. Aubrey conducted for the journal Nature Communications suggests that in some future global warming scenarios, our warmer atmosphere would remove 30 percent more solar energy. “We believe this would boost the cooling of the Earth’s surface by 15 percent,” says Dr. Aubrey.

But Dr. Stoffel, who teaches at the University of Geneva, told CNN there are also troubling uncertainties. “We’re just at the beginning of understanding what might happen,” he says. For old volcanoes, Stoffel explains, “we have very little data,” making it more difficult to model their impact.

To make up for this shortfall, climate scientists, geologists and other researchers analyze atmospheric data trapped in ice cores and old tree rings. These measurements show that several volcanic eruptions over the past few thousand years have temporarily lowered global temperatures by about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

For example, the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 lowered the global average temperature by about 1°C. Geological evidence suggests that another major eruption in Indonesia in 1257, the Great Samala Event, may have triggered a “Little Ice Age” of several centuries.

In contrast, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, based on modern satellite data recording the amount of sulfur dioxide released, is more precisely determined to have lowered the Earth’s temperature by about 0.5°C over several years. Of course, even with these sensors and other seismic tools, scientists still can’t predict the future of a volcano.

“Which volcano will erupt and when is still unpredictable,” Stoffel said. He hopes research into worst-case scenarios will help the public and policymakers better prepare for any eruption, from evacuation plans to preparing food aid in the event of a global famine.

An eruption in the 21st century will affect a much more populated and connected world where extreme disturbances can have deadly and unpredictable consequences. Climate change can even change the behavior of volcanoes, says Dr Aubrey. He notes that melting glaciers above underground magma reservoirs can depressurize these reservoirs and cause eruptions.

“We are currently mapping volcanoes that are most sensitive to climate change,” he told Polytechnic Insights last October. About 716 active volcanoes worldwide, or 58% of known volcanoes, could be affected by heavier rainfall, increasing the likelihood of dangerous eruptions such as steam bombs, explains Dr Aubrey.