Trump’s claims in Congress under the microscope of Mehr News Agency – Mehr News Agency | RCO News Agency

Mehr News Agency, International Group: During his annual “State of the Nation” speech in Congress, Donald Trump presented a controversial and alleged image of his government’s performance; The picture shown by the detailed examination of official data and reports of independent institutions is far from the statistical reality. A detailed review of his speech suggests that a series of big numbers and claims were made that were either fundamentally false or, by omitting statistical context, presented a misleading picture of the state of America. Mehr News Agency has verified these claims.

The reality of gasoline prices; Perceptible distance from the announced figures

In another part of his speech, the President of the United States claimed that the price of gasoline “has fallen below $2.30 per gallon in most states and is even $1.99 in some places.” However, official data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) on the same day showed that no state had an average price below $2.37, and only two states recorded an average below $2.50. The national average price of gasoline was $2.95 per gallon.

The statistics of GasBuddy, which monitors about 150,000 gas stations, show that only four stations across the United States offered gasoline below two dollars; A figure equivalent to about 0.00003 percent of all positions. Trump also referred to his January 27 trip to Iowa and said he saw the price of $1.85 there, while the official average price on the same day in Iowa was $2.57, and out of 2,036 registered gas stations, only four gas stations offered $1.97; That is about 0.19 percent. Even the gas station near where he spoke on the same trip displayed the price at $2.69. Of course, the price of gasoline has decreased compared to the day of Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, when the national average was $3.12, but this decrease does not match the figures announced by the president.

18 trillion dollars of investment; A number that does not exist externally

In a part of his speech, Trump announced that over the past 12 months, “more than 18 trillion dollars” of investment from around the world has flowed into the United States. This number was repeated by him many times before, but still no valid document confirms it. Even the official website of the White House has declared the total of “major investment announcements” during this period to be 9.7 trillion dollars; A figure that is itself a source of controversy. Media studies have shown that a significant part of this figure includes general commitments, non-binding promises, announcements of bilateral commercial cooperation, and even things that are not considered direct investment in American soil. In such circumstances, the gap between the $9.7 trillion announced by the White House and the $18 trillion claimed by the president is a gap that has not been filled with any clear explanation.

The lowest drug price

Trump claimed: “I brought the price of prescription drugs from the highest price in the world to the lowest… The price difference was 300, 400, 500, 600 percent and more.”

But in reality such a thing is practically impossible. Reducing prices by more than 100% means that people will be paid to take the medicine. Jeffrey Joyce, director of health policy at the University of Southern California’s Schaeffer Center, called the claim “completely fanciful” in August, saying it would require drug companies to pay consumers.

Trump’s nuclear and missile claims about Iran

Donald Trump made several baseless claims about Iran in his speech. He claimed: “After the midnight hammer, Iran was warned not to restart the weapons production program, especially nuclear weapons, but they want to resume this program and are currently pursuing their ambitions.”

“We started negotiations and they want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard the ‘magic words’ from them, ‘We will never have nuclear weapons,'” Trump said in another claim.

Donald Trump also claimed that Iran’s missile program is a threat to Europe. “They have already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases in the region, and they are working on missiles that can reach the United States,” Trump said.

Trump’s claim about Iran’s attempt to produce nuclear weapons is a figment of his imagination. Iran has stated many times that according to the fatwa of the Supreme Leader, it considers the acquisition of atomic bomb forbidden and has not made any efforts in this regard. Even the reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirm that Iran is not looking for an atomic bomb, but Trump repeats this claim. Also, Iran’s foreign minister has repeatedly emphasized that any kind of monitoring is acceptable with the aim of ensuring that Iran does not move towards nuclear weapons, and we are ready for any kind of cooperation in this field.

Trump’s claim about Iran’s missiles is completely baseless and influenced by the pressure of the Zionist regime. Iran’s missiles are a means of defense and this issue has been announced by various Iranian authorities. In the past 4 decades, Iran’s missiles have not been used to attack any country or actor except for defense. A missile is a conventional military weapon, and according to international law, independent countries have the right to have this weapon and defense tool, and Trump’s space-building is completely baseless in this case.

The lowest crime reduction

“Last year saw the largest drop in the homicide rate on record … the lowest number in over 125 years,” Trump claimed.

But the reality is something else. Trump credits himself with a significant drop in violent crime by 2025, but the downward trend in crime had already started years before. A study by the Independent Criminal Justice Council, which examined data from 35 cities, found that homicide rates dropped by about 21 percent from 2024 to 2025.

If national data is similar, the homicide rate is likely to fall to about 4 per 100,000, the lowest level since 1900. However, the sharp increase in homicides in 2020 (a nearly 30 percent increase over the previous year) was the largest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping records. By around 2022, under Biden, violent crime had almost returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The claim of “the worst inflation in history” and statistical reality

In his speech, Trump claimed that when he returned to power, “inflation was at the highest level in American history” and the Biden administration left “the worst inflation in the history of the country”. But official data presents a different picture. The annual inflation rate in December 2024, the last full month of the Biden administration, was 2.9 percent. In January 2025, the month of Trump’s inauguration, this rate was recorded at 3.0% and in January 2026, it has decreased to 2.4%. The highest inflation rate of the Biden era was in June 2022 and was equal to 9.1%, which was considered the highest level in four decades, but the historical record of American inflation dates back to 1920 with a rate of 23.7%. Therefore, the interpretation of “the worst inflation in history” is incorrect from a statistical point of view, although the inflation jump of 2022 had created a significant economic pressure.

Trump’s claim on immigration

On immigration, Trump declared: “We will always allow people to come in legally; Those who love our country and work hard.”

But in reality, Trump has taken steps to limit immigration to the United States, often citing national security. On his first day in office, he suspended the refugee program and in October resumed it with restrictions and only for a small number of white South Africans. Trump has also imposed restrictions on the travel or immigration of citizens of nearly 40 countries to the United States, many of which are located in Africa.

“Stagnant” economy or less growth than before?

Trump claimed in Congress that incomes are rising fast, our roaring economy is roaring. Examination of this claim shows that it is not. After-tax and inflation-adjusted incomes increased by only 0.9% in 2025; While this figure was 2.2% in 2024, the last year of the Biden administration. The increase in Trump’s first year is the lowest since 2022; A year when high inflation caused the real income of Americans to decrease.

The unemployment rate also increased from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.3% in January 2026 and reached 4.5% last November. The ratio of employment to the population decreased from 60.1% to 59.8% and the labor force participation rate remained almost unchanged at 62.5%. Although annual inflation has decreased, the set of indicators does not indicate a significant economic jump.

Unproven figures about 19 Billion dollars of corruption

Trump also claimed that members of the Somali community in Minnesota have misused $19 billion in public funds. That’s despite a federal prosecutor suggesting last December that “half or more” of the $18 billion paid to 14 high-risk service centers may be suspect; That too as an initial estimate. State officials have said conclusive evidence is in the “tens of millions of dollars,” not billions. Therefore, the figure of 19 billion dollars has no proven support so far.

Ending eight wars and field reality

Trump said that he has ended “eight wars” in the first 10 months of his presidency. Among the cases he listed, the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile Dam was not basically a war but a long-term diplomatic dispute. The tension between Serbia and Kosovo did not turn into a new war during his term. The conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda continues, and the 2025 peace agreement has not been signed by all the conflicting parties. After a temporary agreement, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia flared up again in December. In Gaza, after the October ceasefire, conflicts have continued at a lower level. In such a situation, the number of “eight ended wars” does not correspond to the realities on the ground.

elimination of social security tax; A promise that was not fully implemented

Trump claimed to have eliminated the Social Security tax. In effect, last year’s legislative package created a temporary $6,000 tax deduction for people 65 and older, which would decrease for higher incomes and expire in 2028. Millions of recipients still pay tax, and those under 65 are not eligible for the benefit. Therefore, the claim of “removal of social security tax” is not accurate.

The biggest tax cut in history; Seventh place in the table

Trump once again described the so-called “big and beautiful bill” as the biggest tax cut in American history. According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the package would reduce tax revenue by $4.8 trillion over a decade, or 1.3 percent of GDP. But expert reviews show that this package is the seventh largest decline since 1918 and the sixth largest decline since 1940 in terms of share of GDP. The largest historical cut was the 1981 package under Ronald Reagan, which cost the equivalent of 2.9 percent of GDP over four years. Therefore, the title “the largest in history” does not match the comparative data.

Distorted narrative of immigration and murder statistics

The President of the United States once again claimed that the Biden administration has allowed 11,888 “killers” to enter the United States. This number refers to the list of non-American citizens who entered the country during the last few decades, including during the first term of Trump’s presidency, and at some point were convicted of murder. Many of these people are in prison and are registered in “non-detainable” immigration status, which includes detainees. Therefore, the claim of “11,888 murderers” freely entering the country is a misrepresentation of official data.

tariffs; Who pays?

Trump emphasized that the tariffs are “paid by foreign countries”, while the economic structure of the tariffs suggests that the initial payment is made by US importers. The February 2026 report of the Federal Bank of New York shows that about 90% of the economic burden of the tariffs was on American companies and consumers. The Congressional Budget Office has also announced that about 95% of the cost of tariffs has ultimately led to an increase in prices for domestic consumers. Although foreign exporters may adjust prices in some cases, the main share of the cost is paid within the United States.

Budget balance “overnight” by eliminating corruption?

In the end, Trump said that by eliminating corruption, the federal budget can be balanced “overnight”. But the estimate of the US Government Audit Office (GAO) shows that between 233 and 521 billion dollars of fraud occurs annually, while the budget deficit of the last fiscal year was nearly 1.8 trillion dollars; A figure more than three times the highest estimate of corruption. Therefore, even in the most optimistic scenario, the complete elimination of fraud will not be enough to compensate for the budget deficit.

the result

A review of Donald Trump’s speech once again highlights a familiar pattern of his political speech; A pattern based on exaggeration, selective selection of numbers, and sometimes making claims that do not match official data. This method is not limited to one issue or one period of time, but it is repeated in different fields, from economy and immigration to foreign policy and elections. Using astronomical figures like “18 trillion dollars in investment” or “ending eight wars” without providing concrete and verifiable details is part of the same communication strategy that relies on psychological impact over statistical accuracy.

In this context, Trump often describes the previous situation as “catastrophic” and the current situation as “unprecedented and historic” by presenting a black and white picture of the past and present; A narrative that works for his political base, but doesn’t hold up well against accurate statistical measurements. The repetition of this method in the past years shows that contradiction and exaggeration in the statement of achievements is not a case error, but an established part of his political style; A style that relies more on creating an image and evoking emotions than on data-based persuasion. In sum, Trump’s speech once again showed how deep the gap between political narrative and statistical data can be. Many of the big numbers and decisive statements raised do not match the facts recorded in the official reports, and the picture that was presented was more than an accurate reflection of the American economic and political indicators, it was a reproduction of the propaganda narrative of the White House.

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