study time: 2 minutes
The new report of the analytical platform Glassnode (Glassnode) shows that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio of Bitcoin has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022; A signal that usually means overselling at a loss and intensifying selling pressure in the market.
According to historical data, in the 2015, 2018 and 2022 cycles, this situation lasted for about six months, followed by a return of liquidity and a change in sentiment.
However, monthly data paints a different picture. If the February candle also closes in the red, Bitcoin will record its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
In the past, the longest consecutive decline period for Bitcoin was 6 months, after which the market experienced a strong rebound and price jump. Some analysts believe that if this pattern is repeated, it is possible to turn the trend even from April.
The statistics on Bitcoin’s historical declines are also encouraging: data shows that when Bitcoin experiences heavy losses of 50-70%, those who bought at the same price floors often made significant profits over the next year.
In the current situation, the $60,000 range is considered a very important level. If the price can stay above this level, the selling pressure will be less and the hope for the return of the trend will increase. But if this support is lost, there is a possibility of intensifying fear and falling deeper.
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