“Trump” and “trade war” with the world; Objectives and consequences – Mehr News Agency Iranian and world news

Mehr News Agency, International Group: The implementation of mutual tariffs on imported goods to the United States is the latest economic action of the Trump administration. In his speech after signing the order, he claimed that “today is one of the most important days in American history, because it indicates our economic independence.” This new tariff policy has specific goals and seems to have consequences.

Why Trump’s tariff policy

Tariffs are border taxes that are received for imports from foreign countries, and importers pay the tax when entering the customs of the destination country. “In my opinion, the most beautiful The word In the dictionary is tariff and this The word My favorite. I look at some of these agreements and say who will never sign it? ” The point is that America is the largest importer of goods in the world. The cost of imports reached about $ 3 trillion in year 2.

The United States also has the biggest deficit of $ 5 trillion. It is the largest US business deficit with China and the European Union. According to statistics, US trade deficit with China was worth $ 5 billion and with the European Union worth $ 5 billion. In these circumstances Trump’s main talk of new tariffs that Included More than 5 countries are that the United States has been abused by business partners and has become a non -industrialized country with low -cost imports.

US Tariff Policy Objections

As Scott Band The US Treasury Secretary has noted that Trump pursues three general goals of the new US tariff policy on imported goods from other parts of the world.

1. Business modification

Trump claims that Failure The reciprocal tariffs for some countries are unfair while they are imposing tariffs on American goods and forming some kind of imbalance in US economic relations with US economic relations. Other Countries. Therefore, it seeks to fix this imbalance with mutual tariffs. From Landscape Increasing tariffs for two reasons can help boost US domestic production:

First; Increase the cost of importing goods from Outside It can encourage companies to transfer production into the US.

Second; Restore production jobs. Increasing tariffs increases foreign goods importers to increase commodity prices, which pushes US consumers to use domestically manufactured goods. “I hope the prices of cars will rise because if it is done, people will buy US -made cars,” Trump said in an interview. The transfer of total supply chains to the United States is very expensive and leads to rising consumer prices, resulting in US -made goods internationally. Non -competitive He does.

2. Increased revenue

Trump, who, until recently, pursued the aim of lowering the federal government’s budget and even in this The way He has adjusted federal employees, now plans to increase government revenue by increasing tariffs. Because tariffs are basically to Meaning Tax On goods Imported, according to the proposed policy, US importers will pay more tax to the US government.

US revenue from tariffs a year was about $ 2 billion, equivalent to 1.5 percent of the total federal income. Trump promised to cut taxes and renew the tax and jobs of the Year 2 in the campaign. According to the tax agency’s data, global tariffs at a rate of 5 % can generate $ 1.5 trillion by year 2.

1. Tariffs; Foreign policy leverage

The Treasury Minister noted at a meeting of the Senate that tariffs are a stronger tool than sanctions to force other countries to do what the US wants. It seems that Trump intends to force various countries from Mexico to Canada and China by tariffing to make his promises to stop illegal immigration to the country.

Consequences of Trump’s tariff policy

1. Slow -down economic

One of the consequences of increasing tariffs is the decline in US economic growth. Carl Weinberg Senior economist and director general Frequency Economics It believes that tariffs may reduce US GDP in the second trimester by 2 %.

2. US entry into recession

Experts consider one of the most important consequences of increased tariffs as US entry into the recession. With the announcement of new tariffs, US companies have fallen by more than $ 2 trillion, the largest Falling After the Corona period. Banks, retailers, clothing, airlines and technology companies find the most damage. Ranking Institute Fitch “Fitch Ratings reports that tariff increases are a new game change that will not only put the US economy, but also the economy of many countries.”

1. Consumer costs

Increase Prices Products and services will increase the cost of US consumers. Bank of America Jay P. Morgan It estimates that 5 % tariffs raise the price of new cars to $ 4,000. Jeffrey Rutch LPL Financial Institute Economist About the consequence Tariffs Believes: “The price of cars and Other “How much imported goods can rise, it is still unclear, especially since businesses know that their customers are having trouble financially.”

1. The possibility of a trade war

Tariffs can increase the likelihood of a trade war between countries. Following the announcement of new tariffs against China, the country also responded to Washington by taxing 5 % on some of the US imported goods. Canada also announced that it is imposing a 5 % tariff on US cars. In the case of reciprocal tariffs, the likelihood of a trade war increases more than ever. Some of this Status It is considered to be similar to the tariff law in year 2.

In this year during the Herbert presidency HooverThe government has decided to protect US farmers from competition by Europe, and for the sake of a bill by Senator Smote And Senator Howley Had been raised on agricultural imports to increase tariffs Signature Kurdish. This law was accompanied by retaliation and countries import tariffs American Products Increased. Business War Caused by The law reduced the value of US imports and exports in the years 1-5. Sam Staval From the CFRA Investment Research Institute in this Bar He believes that “Trump knows that if we are to ignite the World Trade War, such as tariffs Smote Howley “The conditions will be repeated again.”

Result

Applying new tariffs by Trump Caused by This is the approach of the new US president that Washington has been abused by business partners and has become a non -industrial country. On this The basis From Landscape He could encourage companies to transfer production to the United States, increase government revenue, and provide the use of tariffs as foreign policy leverage. At the same time, this tariff policy could reduce US economic growth at least in the short term, bring the US economy a period of recession, increase domestic consumer costs, and ultimately provide conditions for a full -fledged trade war.

Sajjad Moradi Kalard; International Relations Researcher