Insider: Russian forces are probably still in their bases in Syria

According to Isna, following the departure of Bashar al-Assad from Syria and the domination of the armed opposition in this country on December 8, there have been doubts about the approach of the next rulers and the continued presence of foreign forces in this country.

The Kremlin has 2 main facilities in Syria hosted by Bashar al-Assad; A naval base in Tartus and an airbase in Hmeimim, which are crucial for Russia’s access to the Mediterranean and Africa. Russian state media say the Syrian armed forces are now in control of Latakia province, where the bases are located.

With Moscow’s long-term access to these bases being questioned, satellite images show that Russian warships have evacuated Tartus since Monday, and some forces were seen holding positions about 15 kilometers off the coast.

It is unclear whether these ships will return.

Dara Masiko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Financial Times: “But the satellite images also show that the complete evacuation of Tartus has not happened.”

“And if they have to leave Tartus, you’re actually going to see more ships come in to help move the stuff,” he told the publication. “It is possible that Russia has temporarily moved its ships to the sea to protect them while the situation in Syria is unclear.”

At Hmeimim, which Russia uses as its main channel to fly troops into Africa, new satellite images show that much of the Kremlin’s equipment, including fighter jets and helicopters, remains in place.

According to Business Insider, Dara Masiko wrote in a message on the X channel (formerly Twitter) that the evacuation of the air base, if there is such a thing, “will be clear.”

“Aerial evacuation would require hundreds of IL-76 and An-124 sorties, not the handful spotted at Hmeimim yesterday,” he wrote, referring to several Ilyushin and Antonov cargo planes spotted in Hmeimim earlier this week.

Masiko added: “When Russian forces were deployed in Syria in 2015, they flew almost 300 sorties in 2 weeks, and this was before the expansion of the base.”

Analysts at the Institute for War Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, wrote that Russia is likely to delay a full evacuation and try to sign a deal with Syria’s new rulers. They said that Russia still maintains equipment in Hmeimim and that the “lack of a coherent Russian response” shows that Moscow is still monitoring the situation.

Analysts wrote: “The Kremlin is likely to be hesitant to completely evacuate all military equipment from Syria and is trying to establish a relationship with the Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its bases and personnel in Syria.” The Kremlin hopes it will not be forced to evacuate. “Russia is also publicly showing that it will not give up its critical bases.”

Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia has been in contact with “those who can guarantee the security of our military bases.” Meanwhile, the Russian state media “Tass” quoted an anonymous source in the Kremlin as saying that the leaders of the Syrian opposition have guaranteed the security of Tartus and Hmeimim.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian intelligence department claimed on Tuesday that Russia has a plan to evacuate Hmeimim with the Antonovs and Ilyushins, and that Russian forces under the supervision of special forces have begun an operation to neutralize the equipment in Tartus. The Ukrainian service did not say how it obtained the alleged information.

The uncertain future of Russia in Syria

Despite these predictions, it is not clear how Syria will shape up after Assad.

The armed forces in this country were mostly disintegrated and consisted of different factions that pursued the common goal of overthrowing Assad.

On Tuesday, “Mohammed al-Bashir”, who was in charge of controlling areas controlled by armed groups in northern Syria, said he had been appointed as the interim prime minister.

The Islamist group at the helm of Syria’s armed groups is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda-affiliated guerrilla who is said to have cut ties with the terrorist organization.

But he is still on the terrorist list of the United States, and a reward of 10 million dollars has been set for his head. Although he has been a prominent contender for the leadership, he has not taken the official leadership position as of press time.

end of message