Central Asia; Iran’s opportunity to benefit from economic-commercial interests in the midst of sanctions

According to Isna, the official visit of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, “Massoud Al-Madijian”, to Kazakhstan on December 11 shows Tehran’s increasing attention to Central Asia amid intense global competition. This meeting determined the importance of this region for Iran and the opportunities and limitations that shape this interaction.

“Astana Times” newspaper wrote in a note raising the question “why Central Asia is important for Iran”, “Central Asia has become a dynamic field and the focus of attention of great powers. During the last year, high-level meetings were held with the European Union, China, Russia, and the United States within the framework of the 5C+1, and after that, Japan held a similar meeting on December 19-20. Türkiye and the Republic of Azerbaijan have also gained a stronger presence, including at the October meeting of the Organization of Turkic-Speaking Countries and Azerbaijan’s full membership in the consultative meetings of Central Asian leaders.

Therefore, Iran cannot ignore the developments north of its borders. The increasing global attention to Central Asia motivates Tehran to intensify its political, economic and diplomatic interactions in the region.

In the continuation of this article, it was raised with the claim that Iran is in political and economic isolation and one of its main priorities in this region is to reduce this isolation: Strengthening Tehran’s position in Central Asia will provide it with the diplomatic support it needs, and to some extent it will be an economic solution in the midst of the siege.

“Gasem Jomart Tokayev” the President of Kazakhstan and his Iranian counterpart expressed concern about the escalation of international tensions and the impact of sanctions. Tokayev pointed out that the positions of Kazakhstan and Iran in the international scene are often aligned. Despite the fact that no specific situation was mentioned, such statements are especially important for Tehran against the background of the recent war with the Zionist regime and the United States and the broader stable tensions.

The importance of economic and commercial cooperation with Central Asia in the midst of Western sanctions

Astana Times wrote: “The pressure of sanctions on Iran’s trade and economy remains, and this adds to the importance of access to Central Asian markets and the development of transport and logistics links. During this trip, the presidents of the two countries agreed to increase bilateral trade to 3 billion dollars, which is a significant increase compared to the figure of 340 million dollars in 2024. Medeshian said that trade has grown by 40 percent and Tokayev also mentioned that more than 350 companies with Iranian capital are active in Kazakhstan.

Iran also sees Central Asia as a bridge to the huge markets of China and Russia. Tehran seeks to deepen trade and logistics connections in Eurasia, and Central Asia is at the center of this goal. The volume of freight on the existing routes, including the North-South crossing and the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, has increased by 53% in the first 10 months of the year. The first China-Iran freight train started operating in May through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which emphasizes the transit role of the region.

Iran’s limitations and opportunities to strengthen relations with Central Asia

This note adds: “Despite mutual benefits, Iran’s interaction with Central Asia is affected by a mixture of structural constraints and emerging opportunities that directly affect the region. International sanctions remain the main limiting factor, affecting trade, investment and communication projects important to the expansion of Central Asia’s foreign relations.

Kazakh-Iranian trade is indicative of this impact: the volume of bilateral trade reached $2 billion in 2008, but fell sharply after the tightening of sanctions in the early 2010s, reaching an all-time low of $300 million in 2019.

Sanctions have also affected infrastructure and energy projects related to Central Asian connectivity. “The blocking of the gas exchange agreement between Iran, Turkmenistan and Iraq and the reimposition of sanctions on Iran’s Chabahar port, which can be a gateway to open waters for Central Asian countries, show the vulnerability of the transit goals of the region against foreign political pressure.”

In the continuation of this article, pointing out that several factors create opportunities for Iran to increase its interaction with Central Asia even in spite of these limitations, it is stated: the gradual transition towards a multipolar world and the increasing role of regional and international cooperation frameworks such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS group have expanded Iran’s diplomatic and economic maneuvering space in Eurasia. Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the implementation of the free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, which led to a 35% increase in trade in the first two months, are examples of these opportunities.

Also, ongoing regional uncertainty, such as tension in the southern routes and attacks on the energy crossings of Central Asian countries, has led to the diversification of transit routes, which creates more opportunities for cooperation with Iran.

On the other hand, the cultural and historical proximity provides another platform for deepening relations, which is represented by the statements of the Iranian and Kazakh officials and the recent cultural agreements. In general, Iran can strengthen its position in Central Asia by taking advantage of these geopolitical, transit and cultural opportunities despite the sanctions and structural barriers still in place and avoid the losses caused by neglecting this vital region.

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