After Bitcoin managed to hold more or less above the $24,000 level over the past week, more analysts looked for signs of a coinuation of the uptrend. However, a closer look at the market data suggests that the rece spike in Bitcoin’s price could be more of a poteial bull trap than a sustained uptrend.
According to the digital currency report, a digital currency analyst with the nickname Stockmoney Lizards (Stockmoney Lizards) in the field a tweet It has investigated the reasons for the rece increase in the price of Bitcoin. When asked if the fifth Bitcoin bull market has begun, he says that typically the investme cycle in Bitcoin consists of 4 stages:
Having
bull market
bear market
Accumulation
StockMoney believes that the halving eve was the biggest trigger to start a poteial bull market to date; Even if other analysts have questioned its importance. In general, halving increases the price of Bitcoin by reducing supply and increasing demand (scarcity). Therefore, it makes sense to wait for the next halving to increase the price.
In addition, after the closing of the first green candle at the beginning of the bull market, we will see significa price growth for mohs.
This analyst notes:
What we can say for sure is that we are witnessing a twin bottom pattern, and historically this pattern has been repeated at the lows of previous Bitcoin cycles.
However, referring to the chart below, StockMoney states that Bitcoin is currely in phase D of the Wykoff accumulation pattern. As a result, it is still too early to declare the beginning of an upward trend; Because we have a lot of time before the next halving in March 2024 (Esfand 1402).
Stablecoins are also the anchor poi of the money flow cycle in the digital currency market, and Bitcoin and other altcoins are bought using them. While we saw a significa increase in the supply of stablecoins during the bull market of 2021 (1400), their supply has been declining in the rece bear market.
Despite the 45% jump in the price of Bitcoin since the beginning of the year, we coinue to see the coinuation of the downward trend in the supply of stablecoins.
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator calculates the changes (difference) between the buying volume and the selling volume in a certain time period. A closer examination of this indicator shows that the purchase of Bitcoin using the BUSD stablecoin was the main reason for the rece price increase. Meanwhile, the cumulative delta volume of other stablecoins has had a downward trend in the same period.
It can be concluded that the overbought power of Binance USD in rece weeks has caused the curre jump in the price of Bitcoin.
In addition, trillions of dollars of fiat money, especially from China, have recely eered the digital currency market, and as we saw in 2021, the influx of liquidity from the ceral bank caused the price of assets such as Bitcoin to rise. Noting that the rece bounce is the biggest bull trap it has ever seen, StockMoney expects another price correction in the near future.
