Most analysts see Merge’s approaching time of Merge on September 9 as the reason for the 5 % rise in the price of Ethereum after reaching the $ 2 range in June. However, there are indicators that show that even the upgrades can preve the fall in the future.
According to Kevin Telegraph, Ethereum is still trading at 2 perce lower than its highest price in November (October 1), according to Kevin Telegraph. A review of the dowrend of the Ethereum market will show why Ethereum value is likely to coinue the dowrend.
Buy with a rumor, sell it!
According to data collected by the Glassnode analytical platform, the options traders predict that the price of the digital currency will rise from $ 4.9 to $ 4.9 before the curre iegration. Even some traders think that the price of Ethereum will reach $ 4.9, though there is not much passion for the post -transfer era.
Review of the “Smile Smile of Optional Elit Fluctuations” or “OIVS” shows that for the post -merger era, there is a demand for use of protective coracts against the downward trend. This index depicts the implicit fluctuations of the option transactions for the Strike Price prices on specified maturity dates. Optional coracts with more profit cause more implicit fluctuations.
Implications of the Implication of Volatilation reflect the market expectation of future fluctuations. When investors believe that asset prices will fall over time and the market will be reduced, implicit fluctuations will increase.
For example, the slope and shape of the smile chart of Options Expiry on September 9 helps traders evaluate the cost of transactions and check the type of risks that the market considers.
The face -to -top slope of the fluctuations of fluctuations shows a large demand on the Ethereum Call Option transactions that expire in September. This means that traders are willing to pay a premium to maiain their own trading positions.
Golsonud analysts have written on the following OIVS chart or PUT Open Ierest at differe agreed prices:
After the merger, the left trail of the chart is priced significaly in implicit fluctuations. This shows that traders pay a guaraee to protect their sales coracts under the influence of “sales with news” after merger.
Simply put, Ethereum traders are ready to cover their transactions if the news of the sale of Ethereum sales is influenced by news.
Federal Reserve Policy Policies
Metropolitan eves, especially the Federal Reserve coractionary policies, could be the second reason for the fall in the price of Ethereum after merger.
Jerome Powell, the head of the US Ceral Bank, emphasized the Federal Reserve’s commitme to coain inflation last week, saying they would coinue to impleme coractionary policies uil inflation corol. In other words, Paul and his colleagues are likely to increase ierest rates by 0.5 to 4.9 perce at their subseque policy meeting in September.
Positive and growing correlations of the digital currency markets and traditional financial markets in risk -taking indicators against the prospect of liquidity reduction in the economy have led to rece news of ierest rates on the price of Ethereum. For example, the daily correlation coefficie of Ethereum Price and Nasdaq Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) on September 9 (September 1) was 2 %.
Therefore, the possibility of lowering the price of the Ethereum along with other risky assets is high; Especially if the Federal Reserve increases ierest rates this moh by 6.5 perce.
Ethereum’s big descending flag
From a technical analysis poi of view, Ethereum is forming a descending flag pattern in its weekly chart.
The descending flag pattern is formed when the price fluctuates within a rising channel (with parallel ceiling and floor) after a rapid and significa drop. According to the rules of technical analysis, the price will be reduced to the exte of the previous descending trend (flag rod) after leaving the canal.
This week, Ethereum tested the lower flag’s line as support. The price of this digital currency in this range can try again to cross the flag’s upper line (about $ 1.5), or to be subjected to a lower trend line as its dowrend coinues.
Given the factors we have examined earlier and as shown in the chart below, there is a possibility of falling the price of Ethereum to the goal of the descending flag ($ 1) in September; A level that is about 2 perce lower than today’s Ethereum.
