“Trump” and “trade war” with the world; Objectives and consequences – Mehr News Agency Iranian and world news

Mehr News Agency, Iernational Group: The implemeation of mutual tariffs on imported goods to the United States is the latest economic action of the Trump administration. In his speech after signing the order, he claimed that “today is one of the most importa days in American history, because it indicates our economic independence.” This new tariff policy has specific goals and seems to have consequences.

Why Trump’s tariff policy

Tariffs are border taxes that are received for imports from foreign couries, and importers pay the tax when eering the customs of the destination coury. “In my opinion, the most beautiful The word In the dictionary is tariff and this The word My favorite. I look at some of these agreemes and say who will never sign it? ” The poi is that America is the largest importer of goods in the world. The cost of imports reached about $ 3 trillion in year 2.

The United States also has the biggest deficit of $ 5 trillion. It is the largest US business deficit with China and the European Union. According to statistics, US trade deficit with China was worth $ 5 billion and with the European Union worth $ 5 billion. In these circumstances Trump’s main talk of new tariffs that Included More than 5 couries are that the United States has been abused by business partners and has become a non -industrialized coury with low -cost imports.

US Tariff Policy Objections

As Scott Band The US Treasury Secretary has noted that Trump pursues three general goals of the new US tariff policy on imported goods from other parts of the world.

1. Business modification

Trump claims that Failure The reciprocal tariffs for some couries are unfair while they are imposing tariffs on American goods and forming some kind of imbalance in US economic relations with US economic relations. Other Couries. Therefore, it seeks to fix this imbalance with mutual tariffs. From Landscape Increasing tariffs for two reasons can help boost US domestic production:

First; Increase the cost of importing goods from Outside It can encourage companies to transfer production io the US.

Second; Restore production jobs. Increasing tariffs increases foreign goods importers to increase commodity prices, which pushes US consumers to use domestically manufactured goods. “I hope the prices of cars will rise because if it is done, people will buy US -made cars,” Trump said in an ierview. The transfer of total supply chains to the United States is very expensive and leads to rising consumer prices, resulting in US -made goods iernationally. Non -competitive He does.

2. Increased revenue

Trump, who, uil recely, pursued the aim of lowering the federal governme’s budget and even in this The way He has adjusted federal employees, now plans to increase governme revenue by increasing tariffs. Because tariffs are basically to Meaning Tax On goods Imported, according to the proposed policy, US importers will pay more tax to the US governme.

US revenue from tariffs a year was about $ 2 billion, equivale to 1.5 perce of the total federal income. Trump promised to cut taxes and renew the tax and jobs of the Year 2 in the campaign. According to the tax agency’s data, global tariffs at a rate of 5 % can generate $ 1.5 trillion by year 2.

1. Tariffs; Foreign policy leverage

The Treasury Minister noted at a meeting of the Senate that tariffs are a stronger tool than sanctions to force other couries to do what the US was. It seems that Trump iends to force various couries from Mexico to Canada and China by tariffing to make his promises to stop illegal immigration to the coury.

Consequences of Trump’s tariff policy

1. Slow -down economic

One of the consequences of increasing tariffs is the decline in US economic growth. Carl Weinberg Senior economist and director general FrequencyEconomics It believes that tariffs may reduce US GDP in the second trimester by 2 %.

2. US ery io recession

Experts consider one of the most importa consequences of increased tariffs as US ery io the recession. With the announceme of new tariffs, US companies have fallen by more than $ 2 trillion, the largest Falling After the Corona period. Banks, retailers, clothing, airlines and technology companies find the most damage. Ranking Institute Fitch “Fitch Ratings reports that tariff increases are a new game change that will not only put the US economy, but also the economy of many couries.”

1. Consumer costs

Increase Prices Products and services will increase the cost of US consumers. Bank of America Jay P. Morgan It estimates that 5 % tariffs raise the price of new cars to $ 4,000. JeffreyRutch LPL Financial Institute Economist About the consequence Tariffs Believes: “The price of cars and Other “How much imported goods can rise, it is still unclear, especially since businesses know that their customers are having trouble financially.”

1. The possibility of a trade war

Tariffs can increase the likelihood of a trade war between couries. Following the announceme of new tariffs against China, the coury also responded to Washington by taxing 5 % on some of the US imported goods. Canada also announced that it is imposing a 5 % tariff on US cars. In the case of reciprocal tariffs, the likelihood of a trade war increases more than ever. Some of this Status It is considered to be similar to the tariff law in year 2.

In this year during the Herbert presidency HooverThe governme has decided to protect US farmers from competition by Europe, and for the sake of a bill by Senator Smote And Senator Howley Had been raised on agricultural imports to increase tariffs Signature Kurdish. This law was accompanied by retaliation and couries import tariffs American Products Increased. Business War Caused by The law reduced the value of US imports and exports in the years 1-5. Sam Staval From the CFRA Investme Research Institute in this Bar He believes that “Trump knows that if we are to ignite the World Trade War, such as tariffs SmoteHowley “The conditions will be repeated again.”

Result

Applying new tariffs by Trump Caused by This is the approach of the new US preside that Washington has been abused by business partners and has become a non -industrial coury. On this The basis From Landscape He could encourage companies to transfer production to the United States, increase governme revenue, and provide the use of tariffs as foreign policy leverage. At the same time, this tariff policy could reduce US economic growth at least in the short term, bring the US economy a period of recession, increase domestic consumer costs, and ultimately provide conditions for a full -fledged trade war.

Sajjad Moradi Kalard; Iernational Relations Researcher