The Guardian: Trump is coming, the world is not ready for the worst

According to RCO News Agency, the Guardian wrote: Before the inauguration, Trump sent signals, increasing tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico and promising to buy Greenland and the Panama Canal – and if not, attack Greenland and the Panama Canal. And pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept the Gaza ceasefire, which he had resisted since May.

Whether or not Marco Rubio, Trump’s choice for Secretary of State, and the State Department itself will have an impact on Trump’s foreign policy is currently a question in Europe.

Unpredictability is Trump’s modus operandi, he told the Wall Street Journal: For example, “I’m glad that Chinese President Xi Jinping respects me because he knows I’m crazy.” Unfortunately, the fear of the crazy is lessened if He doesn’t occasionally do something really chaotic. Because of this, many expect Trump to start his administration quickly and try to frustrate his opponents and prove that his “America First” approach is a reality.

He can’t hope to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, start mass layoffs or impose 25 percent tariffs around the world, but he is expected to show which foreign countries are on his mind; It starts from Canada, China and Mexico.

Canadian diplomats, stunned to find themselves on the front lines alongside China, spent much of the past week in Washington trying to woo Republican senators. Despite domestic disputes, Canada claims it has three steps of retaliation against $150 billion worth of US imports if Trump starts his trade war.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who held talks with Latin American foreign ministers on Friday to devise a joint strategy against Trump, says the country has consular plans in place if mass deportations begin. China has been preparing its retaliations for a year and is looking for an ally.

But in Europe, where popular animosity toward Trump is higher than elsewhere, predictions about the future of relations go beyond these words. German Economy Minister Robert Haubeck predicts that US tariffs against the EU will be set to hurt German industry. Even transatlanticists such as Friedrich Mertz, widely tipped to be the next chancellor, argue that EU unity is a necessary condition for seizing the opportunities of a successful relationship.

In 2016, Trump threatened Mexico with 30% tariffs but agreed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. The European Union finally avoided tariffs on cars by agreeing in 2018 to buy more liquefied natural gas and soybeans from the United States. Similar offers will be made this time as well.

The text of the Senate confirmation hearing of Rubio, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, has also been cited as a sign that the United States will not remove the bridge. His testimony repeatedly pointed to the global role of the United States and the importance of building alliances, even favoring cooperation with Mexico over the fight against drug cartels.

In the case of Ukraine, it is true that he said the government’s official position was that “the war must end” and that this would require territorial concessions from both sides. But before a ceasefire begins, Rubio said, Ukraine must be in a strong bargaining position, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin did an “unacceptable” thing by attacking Ukraine.

He added: “Putin’s goal now is to have the maximum leverage so that he can basically impose neutrality on Ukraine, rebuild it and come back and do it in four or five years, and this is not an outcome that I think he wants.” benefit each of us.

On NATO, Rubio said he would follow Kane Rubio’s Act of 2023, which prohibits the president from withdrawing from NATO without Senate approval. All in all, his plea for more European help in defending itself is the all-too-familiar rhetoric of any American politician of the past two decades.

Rubio, known as an “anti-China hawk,” said he did not believe Beijing wanted a military conflict, saying, “The Chinese have basically come to the conclusion that America is kind of tired and a great power in decline.” That they’re on a path to naturally replace us in the next 20 or 30 years, no matter what happens, and I think they’d prefer not to have any trade or armed conflict in the meantime, because I think they might interrupt what they believe is a natural progression.

For example, in seeking alliances against China in the Indo-Pacific, he said, “It’s a mistake to go in with a Cold War mentality of picking sides.” Overall, he defined the conflict with China as a way of making the economy of the United States and its allies less dependent on China.

He also did not support a simple withdrawal from the Middle East and abandoning the Syrian Kurds to the Turks, a position that would be welcomed in Europe. Referring to the Syrian Democratic Forces, he said: “There are words to release our partners, those who practically imprisoned ISIS members with sacrifice, these have consequences.” “One of the reasons we were able to destroy ISIS was that they agreed to keep ISIS in their prisons, which was even a threat to them.”

Even in the case of Iran, he takes a slightly different view than in the past, arguing that there is a mindset in Iran that believes “there is a big problem and needs a solution,” while there is another mindset that believes “non-intervention.” “Foreign is best achieved through the acquisition of nuclear power.”

Rubio said the Trump administration would be pro-Israel, but rejected Israel’s return to control of Gaza, saying, “The real issue for the Palestinians is who will rule in Gaza in the short term and who will rule in the end.” became. Will this be the Palestinian Authority or another entity? Because it has to be someone.”

He also acknowledged that there is a genocide going on in Sudan, which means the United States needs to raise with the United Arab Emirates that “they are openly supporting an institution that is committing a genocide.”

But do Rubio’s comments matter?

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned that there will be only one decision-maker in the new US administration: Donald Trump. Turnbull advises that as executive orders come out of the White House in the coming days – many of them against US allies – the primary test is to tackle bullying, but then to convince him that there is common ground, the only answer is a The question remains – commercial and political – that Trump always asks: What’s in it for me?!

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