Faren Afarz: Pressure doesn’t work; Trump should negotiate with Iran

According to RCO News Agency, “Richard Nefio”, the architect of sanctions against Iran in the administration of “Barack Obama” and a member of the Washington think tank on Near East policies, has analyzed rece developmes in the region and its impact on Washington’s policies against Iran’s nuclear program in an analytical article.

Nefio wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine: “For more than 2 decades, hard-line American politicians have called for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and their request has always been rejected. The reason for their desire to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities was the iernational community’s support for America against Iran and the lack of maturity of Tehran’s nuclear program. In the curre situation, there are very good reasons not to attack Iran. “Any attack on this coury will bring the Middle East io more chaos.”

He further wrote: “On the other hand, it is now necessary for America to pay atteion to other regions of the world, and any military action against Iran will cost Washington a lot, and even if America was to attack these facilities, there is a possibility of failure.” It is very high, and if the United States fails in its military action against Iran, the military credibility of the United States will be weakened.”

The former American diplomat added: “The best solution to preve Iran from becoming a nuclear coury is a diplomatic agreeme. Iran is closer than ever to nuclearization, and due to the war of Tehran’s allies with Israel and Israel’s attacks on Iran, this coury needs nuclear deterrence more than ever. On the other hand, the iernational community is no longer committed to Iran, and despite the presence of extensive sanctions, many couries, including China, India and Russia, are violating these sanctions for their cooperation with Iran.

Admitting that “the possibility of uniting the world against Iran is much less than in the past,” Nefio wrote: “Both American political parties are seeking confroation with China. Relations between Iran and Russia have reached their strongest level in rece decades. Therefore, considering the high probability of failure of any military action against Iran and its risks, the Trump administration should negotiate with Iran in good faith in its first days.”

The dangers of any military action against Iran

The former Deputy Special Envoy of the US for Iran Affairs added: “There are many reasons to try again on a diplomatic solution. Above all, US officials do not know whether any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be successful. America and its allies (Israel) have the ability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, but even such an attack will not preve Iran from deciding to go nuclear or move its facilities.”

He also wrote: “Iran can quickly move its facilities and uranium reserves to secret facilities before the American attacks.” On the other hand, after an attack by a nuclear coury like the United States, Tehran can much more easily gain the support of the world community for its nuclearization and build several nuclear bombs with its transferred uranium reserves.

Nefiu’s claim about the “America’s ability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities” is while earlier, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in an ierview: “Diplomacy relies on power that moves and these are the factors that make power. I have said many times and I believe that if it were not for our missile capability, basically no one would negotiate with us, if they could destroy our nuclear facilities with a military attack, for example. what was the reason for them to negotiate with us and sit and negotiate for 2 years and a little bit, for 18 days the US foreign minister or the 5+1 foreign ministers will meet to reach an understanding, the reason was the ability to destroy our facilities militarily did not have Our armed forces had created this ability by means of missiles that had a deterre aspect.

Referring again to the dangers of any military action against Iran and the possibility of its small success, the former American official added: “Even in the case of the complete success of the United States in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and uranium reserves, the decades of experience of Iranian experts in the nuclear industry means their ability to create This facility will be renewed.”

America’s political predicame against Iran and the lack of support from the iernational community for Washington

Richard Nefio further stated: “So, considering the small possibility of success of the United States in preveing Iran from going nuclear by destroying its facilities, except for negotiations, the only possible solution for the United States is to prepare for a large-scale war, but Washington does not have the necessary ability or will for this. Action is not available. The option of regime change in Iran will not guaraee a better future. “The possibility of a milita regime coming to power after the fall of the Islamic Republic is very high.”

He further added: “If the Islamic Republic falls, Iran will eer chaos.” Maybe a few people will be happy about this issue, but this chaos is the main reason why Iranians do not wa to change the regime in Iran. Regardless of the results, any attack on Iran, be it a limited attack or a full-scale war, will be costly for America. At this very mome, many reports have been published about the shortage of ammunition and American air defense, and any pressure against Washington in such a situation would be irrational.”

The former American official coinued to report: “On the other hand, the iernational conditions are also much differe than in the past. The war in Ukraine coinues and there is a danger of China attacking Taiwan at any mome, and the eire Middle East is in tension. A military operation against Iran in a situation where Europe, the southern world and America’s Arab partners are not aligned with Washington will be risky for it.

Trump; The only reason for the failure of the JCPOA

In the coinuation of his note, Nefiu wrote: “The only reason for the failure of the JCPOA was Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from it. Negotiations in 2021 and 2022 also failed due to Iran’s lack of trust in America and Europe and Washington’s unwillingness to really agree to a diplomatic solution, but if Trump agrees to a new agreeme, the probability of Iran’s agreeme is also high. “Democrats also wa an agreeme, and if Trump agrees, Republicans will also support it.”

The architect of ai-Iranian sanctions added: “Trump expressed his ierest in an agreeme that he called “simple”, but such an agreeme will require complex efforts. “Tehran and Washington must agree on the ceiling of Iran’s nuclear program, the way Iran operates in the region, the American guaraees, and how sanctions will be lifted.”

He coinued to write: “In the end, America’s ability against Iran’s nuclear equation is limited. None of the American officials know the way of thinking of the Iranian officials. Maximum renewed pressure on Iran could lead Iran to go nuclear, hide its nuclear material, withdraw from the NPT, or all three options simultaneously.

“There is no substitute for serious negotiations,” Nefio emphasized at the end. The best and safest way is to renegotiate.”

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