Faren Afarz: Pressure doesn’t work; Trump should negotiate with Iran

According to RCO News Agency, “Richard Nefio”, the architect of sanctions against Iran in the administration of “Barack Obama” and a member of the Washington think tank on Near East policies, has analyzed recent developments in the region and its impact on Washington’s policies against Iran’s nuclear program in an analytical article.

Nefio wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine: “For more than 2 decades, hard-line American politicians have called for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and their request has always been rejected. The reason for their desire to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities was the international community’s support for America against Iran and the lack of maturity of Tehran’s nuclear program. In the current situation, there are very good reasons not to attack Iran. “Any attack on this country will bring the Middle East into more chaos.”

He further wrote: “On the other hand, it is now necessary for America to pay attention to other regions of the world, and any military action against Iran will cost Washington a lot, and even if America wants to attack these facilities, there is a possibility of failure.” It is very high, and if the United States fails in its military action against Iran, the military credibility of the United States will be weakened.”

The former American diplomat added: “The best solution to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear country is a diplomatic agreement. Iran is closer than ever to nuclearization, and due to the war of Tehran’s allies with Israel and Israel’s attacks on Iran, this country needs nuclear deterrence more than ever. On the other hand, the international community is no longer committed to Iran, and despite the presence of extensive sanctions, many countries, including China, India and Russia, are violating these sanctions for their cooperation with Iran.

Admitting that “the possibility of uniting the world against Iran is much less than in the past,” Nefio wrote: “Both American political parties are seeking confrontation with China. Relations between Iran and Russia have reached their strongest level in recent decades. Therefore, considering the high probability of failure of any military action against Iran and its risks, the Trump administration should negotiate with Iran in good faith in its first days.”

The dangers of any military action against Iran

The former Deputy Special Envoy of the US for Iran Affairs added: “There are many reasons to try again on a diplomatic solution. Above all, US officials do not know whether any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be successful. America and its allies (Israel) have the ability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, but even such an attack will not prevent Iran from deciding to go nuclear or move its facilities.”

He also wrote: “Iran can quickly move its facilities and uranium reserves to secret facilities before the American attacks.” On the other hand, after an attack by a nuclear country like the United States, Tehran can much more easily gain the support of the world community for its nuclearization and build several nuclear bombs with its transferred uranium reserves.

Nefiu’s claim about the “America’s ability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities” is while earlier, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in an interview: “Diplomacy relies on power that moves and these are the factors that make power. I have said many times and I believe that if it were not for our missile capability, basically no one would negotiate with us, if they could destroy our nuclear facilities with a military attack, for example. what was the reason for them to negotiate with us and sit and negotiate for 2 years and a little bit, for 18 days the US foreign minister or the 5+1 foreign ministers will meet to reach an understanding, the reason was the ability to destroy our facilities militarily did not have Our armed forces had created this ability by means of missiles that had a deterrent aspect.

Referring again to the dangers of any military action against Iran and the possibility of its small success, the former American official added: “Even in the case of the complete success of the United States in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and uranium reserves, the decades of experience of Iranian experts in the nuclear industry means their ability to create This facility will be renewed.”

America’s political predicament against Iran and the lack of support from the international community for Washington

Richard Nefio further stated: “So, considering the small possibility of success of the United States in preventing Iran from going nuclear by destroying its facilities, except for negotiations, the only possible solution for the United States is to prepare for a large-scale war, but Washington does not have the necessary ability or will for this. Action is not available. The option of regime change in Iran will not guarantee a better future. “The possibility of a militant regime coming to power after the fall of the Islamic Republic is very high.”

He further added: “If the Islamic Republic falls, Iran will enter chaos.” Maybe a few people will be happy about this issue, but this chaos is the main reason why Iranians do not want to change the regime in Iran. Regardless of the results, any attack on Iran, be it a limited attack or a full-scale war, will be costly for America. At this very moment, many reports have been published about the shortage of ammunition and American air defense, and any pressure against Washington in such a situation would be irrational.”

The former American official continued to report: “On the other hand, the international conditions are also much different than in the past. The war in Ukraine continues and there is a danger of China attacking Taiwan at any moment, and the entire Middle East is in tension. A military operation against Iran in a situation where Europe, the southern world and America’s Arab partners are not aligned with Washington will be risky for it.

Trump; The only reason for the failure of the JCPOA

In the continuation of his note, Nefiu wrote: “The only reason for the failure of the JCPOA was Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from it. Negotiations in 2021 and 2022 also failed due to Iran’s lack of trust in America and Europe and Washington’s unwillingness to really agree to a diplomatic solution, but if Trump agrees to a new agreement, the probability of Iran’s agreement is also high. “Democrats also want an agreement, and if Trump agrees, Republicans will also support it.”

The architect of anti-Iranian sanctions added: “Trump expressed his interest in an agreement that he called “simple”, but such an agreement will require complex efforts. “Tehran and Washington must agree on the ceiling of Iran’s nuclear program, the way Iran operates in the region, the American guarantees, and how sanctions will be lifted.”

He continued to write: “In the end, America’s ability against Iran’s nuclear equation is limited. None of the American officials know the way of thinking of the Iranian officials. Maximum renewed pressure on Iran could lead Iran to go nuclear, hide its nuclear material, withdraw from the NPT, or all three options simultaneously.

“There is no substitute for serious negotiations,” Nefio emphasized at the end. The best and safest way is to renegotiate.”

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