What will happen to the Syrian oil fields after the fall of Assad? Shareholding of iernational actors – Mehr News agency RCO News Agency
Mehr News Agency, Iernational Group: After the fall of Assad, the issue of energy and oil fields in Syria has become very importa, and the energy field in this coury is tied to geopolitical developmes and the ierests of actors in this coury.
importaTheThe most oil regions of Syria
Oil exploration in Syria began in 1933 when the Iraqi Oil Company discovered oil fields in Kirkuk. The first commercial flow of Syrian oil was in 1956. In 1958, the General Departme of Petroleum Affairs was established to carry out exploration and production, refining, transportation and purchase of petroleum products. In 1964, the Baath Party banned foreign companies from exploration and investme permits. According to the statistics of 2016, Syria’s oil reserves are two billion five hundred million barrels. Syria is in the 31st category of couries with oil resources.
Oil and gas reserves in Syria are mainly located in the eastern part of Deir Ezzor province near the border with Iraq and along the Euphrates River, and a number of smaller energy fields are also located in the ceer of the coury. In Haske province, Remilan, Sodiye and Krachuk oil fields are the main oil and gas production fields. There are also 1322 oil wells and 25 gas wells in this area.
These fields are connected by pipelines to the Syrian Homs refinery. In 2012, the Syrian ceral governme lost effective corol over the coury’s oil fields, which are located near the border with Iraq and east of Homs. Global energy statistics published by the London-based Energy Institute showed the daily production of Syrian oil in 2023 at 40,000 barrels. In the early 2000s, Syria was producing more than 600,000 barrels per day, comparable to Azerbaijan or Egypt.
The importance of mastering the oil areas of Syria
Oyton Orhan, a specialist in Middle East studies at Orsam think tank, believes that “Syria has limited energy resources. The importa poi here is the geopolitical situation of Syria. “If we consider the situation in Syria, whoever corols this coury will have great power over the region.” In this sense, the importance of corolling oil resources in Syria in the absence of a ceral governme is most importa for the Kurds and the United States. According to a report by the Chatham House think tank, in 2019, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces (SDF) corol about 70% of Syria’s oil fields.
The Kurds corol most of the oil resources in Deir ez-Zor and Haskeh and use it to meet the needs of the corolled areas. There are also confirmed reports that the SDF sold crude oil to the Damascus governme in 2019-2024 in exchange for oil derivatives and cash. Oil in Kurdish-dominated areas is considered as the key to daily life in this region. There are about 1,500 traditional oil refineries in this region. The main problem of the oil resources of this region is the occasional explosions in the oil and gas pipelines, which has acceuated the role of oil tankers.
In addition to the Kurds, America is the most importa actor in the Syrian oil fields. Since 2015, the United States has expanded its corol over the oil regions of Turkey, including in the north of the coury, in the form of the ai-ISIS coalition. Assista Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Roth Hoffman said during a press conference in November 2019, “Oil field revenue does not go to the United States, it goes to the Syrian Democratic Forces.” In Syria, the US mission is not in this coury; The mission is to defeat ISIS. “Securing the oil fields is a task of this mission.”
However, the importance of Syria’s oil areas for the United States is such that Donald Trump, the curre preside-elect of the United States, considered the reason for the presence of this coury’s forces in Syria to be “establishing oil security”. In order to corol the Syrian Democratic Forces, Washington has erusted them with the corol of the oil fields. Before the fall of Assad, corolling Russia was a top priority for the US. For example in the year 2018 When Wagner’s Russian-backed forces attacked Deir ez-Zor to take corol of the Konico gas facility, they were met with heavy American airstrikes. After Russia signed a 25-year deal with the Assad governme to explore for gas off Syria’s Mediterranean coast, the United States tried to strengthen its position in the region by occupying Syria’s oil fields. In fact, the presence of Russia in the region and the establishme of a base in the Mediterranean is a fundameal reason for the presence of America in this region.
What groups in the future on the wellTheWill the oil dominate?
Which groups will dominate the Syrian oil wells in the northern and ceral regions in the future is of considerable importance. Due to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s governme and the reduction of the influence of his allies, the American-Kurdish axis and Türkiye are the most importa players in this field. In other words, it can be said that in the shadow of the iernal developmes in Syria, the predictions are more in the direction that the power and influence of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces, which are supported by the United States and also now corol 80% of the coury’s oil fields, will increase. slow Warren Monet, an oil analyst, said in an ierview with Forbes magazine that with the support of the United States, the efforts to coinue taking corol of the oil wells by the Syrian Democratic Forces will increase.
There are two approaches regarding the coinued presence of America in this region. Some people, like Monet, predict that the US will maiain a military presence in these areas with the aim of coinuing to use Syrian oil. Others consider Trump’s exit agenda to be stable in this period as well and believe that with Trump’s election, the United States may not have the motivation to support the Kurds. In 2019, Trump also threatened to withdraw the US from Syria, but in the end he agreed to keep some US forces in Syria on the condition of maiaining the export of Syrian oil.
Türkiye is another actor, especially because of its support for Tahrir al-Sham, there is a possibility that it will dominate the oil wells of Syria. On the other hand, Ankara is one of the oppones of the Syrian Kurdish groups and especially the Kurdish democratic forces. This is also an excuse for Türkiye to iervene in Syria. Therefore, it is possible to seek corol over the oil fields of this coury in the Kurdish regions by abusing the new conditions in Syria. Most importaly, it is likely that Turkey will reach agreemes with groups based in oil-rich areas such as Afrin, thereby escalating the conflict over the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor and Haskeh. The poi that made the matter more complicated is the cooperation of the Syrian Democratic Forces with Tahrir al-Sham in the fall of the Assad governme.
the result
The iertwined conditions, especially the relationship between the Kurdish groups in northern Syria, the direct presence of the United States and its role in supporting the Kurdish groups, and the presence of Turkey as the main supporter of the Tahrir Al-Sham Committee, which played the main role in the fall of the Assad governme, speak for it. that the corol over energy resources will affect the geopolitical arrangeme of actors in Syria.
Sajjad Moradi Kalardeh; Iernational relations researcher
