Moving the capital from the point of view of seismic risk; With the current situation, moving the capital is out of the question

Dr. Shahriar Soleimani Azad, earthquake researcher and head of paleoseismology projects of the Geological and Mineral Exploration Organization of the country, in an interview with ISNAReferring to the several times that the transfer of the capital has been mentioned, he said: “The change of the current capital of Iran has been one of the most important topics discussed among political leaders, people of science and people for a long time. It is a subject that needs to be looked at from various specialized angles (such as: architecture, sociology, effects of climate change, various hazards, etc.) in order to understand it. Where does this issue come from?

He added: Humans have been trying to enjoy a more prosperous and safer life by building small and large rural and urban communities. The insecurity arising from the concentration of population in any dangerous area will not have any consequence other than increasing the probability of vulnerability.

Soleimani Azad stated that the risk can be a natural or man-made risk and sometimes a combination of both, and continued: In other words, when despite the knowledge of the high probability of a natural and large risk, with technical and regulatory negligence, not only Let’s not think, but let’s add to the consequences of the bad occurrence of that risk, this is the combination of two natural and man-made risks, that is, the hump on the hump!

The tectonic earthquake researcher and the person in charge of paleoseismology projects of the Geological Organization pointed out: If the people of the ancient city of Ray and the village of Tehran, one of its functions two centuries ago, knew in their souls that it would become the capital in the near future, maybe a plan with a multi-faceted approach to do such They had something to do and the current challenges of us, the residents of Tehran today, were much less! …But alas, it was not like that and maybe Tehran becoming the capital had more to do with the desire of a certain Qajar Shah to have fun in its good weather than the wise and strategic aspects.

He continued: I remember that in a book, the author describes the formation and growth of our Iranian cities in the recent centuries, the growth of the same previous villages, and even the path of many of their streets is the same as the old alleys of the first villages, and that’s it. The view of “whatever happens, come to pass” and hoping only to the sky for good rain next year for the agricultural society of old Iran, were listed among the reasons for this by the author of the mentioned book.

Soleimani Azad pointed out: Far from being right or wrong, the reality of the irregularity and sloppiness of the development of our villages and cities during recent centuries cannot be denied… especially in the case of a city like Tehran.

He called Tehran a foothill city and added: This city is located in the south of the Alborz mountain range and the north of the desert plain, which is why it was formed and expanded near the Jenba faults, which have a history of earthquakes. Therefore, its initial expansion was from the city of Ray to the north and south, and then its urban areas expanded to the east and west.

This tectonic seismic researcher of the Geological Organization reminded: In addition, the existence of satellite towns and extensive suburban settlements in the past few decades are among the other characteristics of this metropolis, in such a way that the discrete area of ​​the residential areas of this city and its peripheral areas is more than It has reached a thousand square kilometers.

He stated: Only from the point of view of natural hazards related to this population, we must remember that, based on historical documents, during the last great earthquake of the city of Ray in 1830 AD (that is, less than two centuries ago), its total population was less of 60 thousand people and its area was less than 2 square kilometers. Therefore, comparing the urban area and its concentrated and dispersed population today with the mentioned conditions, it is self-evident that it has become more risky.

He emphasized: If this is one of the reasons for the proposal to change the capital in Iran today, another question will be in front of everyone. Do other cities replacing Tehran to become the capital (both centralized and decentralized) have better seismic conditions than Tehran or not? The question that needs to be answered is the availability of sufficient scientific data with appropriate quality. On the other hand, phenomena such as climate change and its destructive effects in reducing people’s access to water sources (especially in southern latitudes) will lead to the migration of more and more people to northern cities and regions. Because from now on, access to the earth’s limited fresh water resources will have a higher priority than in the not-so-distant past. So we see that this one case alone is enough to limit the relocation of the capital to, for example, the less dangerous seismic areas further south.

Soleimani Azad emphasized: From the point of view of earthquakes, it can be said “if and only if” according to the renovations and reconstructions that have taken place in Tehran in the past three decades, the regulations for the design of buildings against earthquakes were correctly designed, monitored and implemented. We could boldly say that changing the capital of Iran has no technical and economic justification in the current situation.

The person in charge of paleoseismology projects of the Geological Organization of the country pointed out: However, according to the testimony of construction experts, due to the high profits of the construction industry, this issue has led to the entry of non-specialist capitalists (such as politicians, doctors, etc.) in this industry. which sometimes prevents such a case from being expressed by exerting influence on technical supervision and obtaining very unreliable results. On the other hand, due to the current difficult economic conditions in the country and many construction projects remaining on the ground, the actual transfer of the capital seems far from the mind.

He emphasized: We should always believe that “doing good is better than filling” and our technical society can only build and expand a safe city and review and retrofit previously designed and built structures in specialized cooperation with insurance companies. In the medium and long term, by reducing the level of vulnerability, it will help to reduce the seismic risk of this metropolis. The simultaneous use of these two measures will also bring the concern of carefree compensation of possible financial losses for the people who are safe from the danger.

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