While the biological ecological capacity in the area of Tehran is not more than 4 to 5 million people and now more than three times the load has occurred in the population around Tehran, the highest amount of land subsidence of about 22 cm per year has occurred in the southwest of Tehran city. Areas 9, 10, 11, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21, where about 3 million people of Tehran live in 1403, are affected by different degrees of subsidence.
According to IsnaIran has been facing a severe water crisis for several years, which has been aggravated by climate change, mismanagement of water resources, and indiscriminate extraction of underground water. The decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature have led to drought conditions in many areas, and according to published reports, about 97% of Iran’s water resources are used unsustainably. This situation has led to significant challenges, major rivers and lakes have dried up or shrunk, affecting agriculture and drinking water resources.
Lack of water has led to protests in various cities and damage to agriculture, which relies heavily on access to water, leading to food insecurity and economic instability. The ongoing water crisis is a long-term threat to the population of Tehran. If the situation continues without effective intervention, it will lead to mass migrations to Tehran, where the water shortage will become uncontrollable.
Considering its geographical location, Iran is considered one of the tense and dangerous regions in terms of climate changes and environmental pressures. In general, 82% of the country’s area is arid and semi-arid. The average rainfall of the country is about 250 mm, which is less than one third of the global average. However, floods always affect many areas of the country.
Iran is one of the most dangerous countries in the world, which has witnessed many natural disasters such as landslides, floods and droughts in the past years. On the other hand, during the past century, Iran has witnessed an increase in air temperature; So that compared to the last 100 years, its temperature has increased by one degree Celsius, and according to the climate change scenarios by 2050, the number of hot days will increase to 30 to 90 days. The weather, sand storms will increase in frequency and intensity in the future.
Besides these, the city of Tehran with its high population concentration has turned into a festival of risks and once again the issue of transferring the capital is on the agenda of the statesmen. According to Dr. Zare, a professor at the International Research Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, in a new capital, the creation of resilient infrastructure that includes efficient water, oil, gas, and electricity distribution networks to minimize leakage and losses in urban areas will be critical to ensure reliable access. was
He emphasizes that when designing a new capital city, it is necessary to include seismic resilience in urban planning and continues: the implementation of zoning laws restricts high-density construction in high-risk areas and low-rise buildings designed to withstand earthquakes. , arrange It is important to enforce strict building codes that require all new construction to meet modern seismic standards. Also, in the new capital, the development of comprehensive emergency response plans specifically designed for earthquake scenarios prepares residents for possible disasters. This includes regular drills, public education about evacuation routes and the creation of community response teams. The implementation of advanced seismic monitoring systems can provide early warnings of earthquakes before an earthquake occurs and allows residents to, if necessary; Take shelter or evacuate.
Putting pressure beyond the power on Tehran’s ecology
Dr. Mehdi Zare, full professor of engineering seismology at the International Research Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, in an interview with ISNA. Referring to the effective factors for deciding on the transfer of the capital, he said: Tehran is the administrative, economic and cultural center of the country, as well as the major industrial and transportation hub of the region. This city is located on the slopes of the Alborz mountain range and at an altitude of 1173 meters to 1800 meters above sea level.
He added: The population of Tehran in 1403 is estimated to be around 9.8 million people, and including the metropolitan city of Tehran, the total population of Tehran province is around 14.5 million people, and considering the population of Alborz province with a population of around 17. There are 5 million people around Tehran, which makes it the largest city in Iran and West Asia and the second largest metropolis in the Middle East after Cairo.
Stating that Tehran has been suffering from the increasing risks of earthquakes and water shortages, soil subsidence and air pollution for years, Zare said: There are also other issues such as garbage disposal and landfills in the south of the capital.
The full professor of the International Research Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering stated: An estimate in September 2017 showed that the population of Tehran will increase by 20 million people in the next 30 years, making urban management almost impossible. The Scientific Association of Urban Economics of Iran believes that the city’s population has exceeded the infrastructure capacity by more than 70%, which means that only 2.7 million of the 9 million people who live directly in the capital can enjoy decent living conditions. to be
He emphasized: The biological ecological capacity in Tehran is not more than 4 to 5 million people, and therefore, the load of more than three times has occurred in the population around Tehran.
Zare continued: The population of Tehran has tripled in the past decades due to drought and the loss of job opportunities in the cities and the influx of people from the provinces in search of work and a better life. It is estimated that more than 4000 people die in Tehran every year due to diseases caused by air pollution.
Emphasizing that as long as Tehran is the capital of Iran, the migration to Tehran and the concentration of activities in and around this city will continue, this risk researcher reminded: these are all factors that show Tehran’s endless ecological problems and transfer The capital provides an opportunity to create a new capital for the country and simultaneously and gradually address the problems of the city of Tehran for Iran.
The professor of the International Research Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering stated that the ground subsidence in Tehran is expanding in different parts of the city and continued: Due to the uncontrolled migrations under the influence of various economic and political factors and the water crisis and extensive water harvesting, it has caused Significant subsidence can be observed especially in the south and southwest of Tehran.
He added: This expansion of the demand for water has led to the irregular extraction of water from underground sources and as a result the subsidence of the land. Monitoring this subsidence, especially its effects on urban infrastructure, has become a critical challenge.
Zare pointed out: The continuation of population loading in Tehran will lead to the continuation of the expansion of subsidence and the transfer of the capital will help to stop the migration to Tehran.
According to him, constant vertical movements (settlement) are experienced especially in areas that are highly dependent on underground water and wells, in some areas at a speed of more than 20 cm per year in the outskirts of Tehran.
Zare added: By stopping population growth in Tehran and properly managing the exploitation of underground water resources, it is possible to plan to reduce possible damage to infrastructure and the environment.
He said: The investigation of alluvial cones and surface drainage and the evaluation of underground and geotechnical water shows that the surface layers of the soil with a high percentage of fine grains and the drop in the underground water level are the main causes of subsidence in the south and southwest of Tehran.
This professor of seismology emphasized: the maximum amount of ground subsidence of about 22 centimeters per year has occurred in the southwest of Tehran. Areas 9, 10, 11, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21, where about 3 million people of Tehran live in 1403, are affected by different degrees of subsidence.
Zare pointed out: in the 17th, 18th, 9th, 10th, 20th and 21st municipal districts of Tehran, the most vulnerable urban areas under the effect of subsidence are within the municipal districts of Tehran. Some major infrastructure at risk of subsidence passes through or around these areas.
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