3 scenarios for the US election

According to Isna, only 2 days are left until the US presidential election and recent polls show that the presidential race between “Kamala Harris” and “Donald Trump”, the candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties, is still close and tight.

According to the Election Research Center of the University of Florida, until November 1 of this year, more than 66 million early votes have been cast across the United States, including 35 million 79 thousand 332 early votes in person and 30 million 903 thousand 354 postal votes. is 38.4% of those who voted were registered as Democratic citizens and 36.1% of them as Republicans. 25.4% of voters do not belong to these 2 major American parties.

Candidates need 270 electoral college votes to win the 2024 presidential election. In 2020, Joe Biden was able to defeat Trump by winning 306 votes and winning in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. According to Newsweek, this time the election is focused on seven key and sensitive states, namely Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One of the important points in the United States election contest, which will be held on November 5, is that the president-elect may not win the most popular votes in the country, because after the American people vote, it is the “Electoral College” that wins. declares the final The word “college” refers to the people who are responsible for voting by the states, and they are called “electors”.

Some organizations have developed models for predicting election results based on a combination of recent polls, demographics, and other data. Newsweek mentioned three of these predictions in its report.

WhatsApp

victory Harris with 270 vote

The database has predicted that Harris will defeat Trump with 270 Electoral College votes. In contrast, Trump will get 268 votes.

According to this prediction, Harris can carry the three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that voted for the Democratic candidate in the 2020 election, as well as the vote of the second electoral district of “Nebraska”, to exactly 270 votes. win the election

WhatsApp data shows Harris leading in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and Trump taking the votes of North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. Thus, Harris leads Trump with 48.8 percent of the vote against 47.1 percent.

Real Clear Poling

victory Trump with 287 vote

The analysis of this database shows that Trump is on the way to victory with 287 Electoral College votes against 251 votes for Harris.

In this scenario, Harris would win Michigan and Wisconsin, but lose Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania to Trump, resulting in the Republican candidate winning the election.

Polls conducted by the publication also show that while Harris currently trails Trump by 251 votes, he has become significantly more popular in the past few weeks. The poll of this publication on October 17 shows that at that time, Trump would have won a much more decisive victory with 312 electoral votes.

However, Newsweek noted that the data used by RailClear Polling included surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports; An institution that the Washington Post has described as a “right-wing” publication, and some publications no longer rely on its polling data.

Decision HQ

victory Trump with 297 vote

The prediction of this institution shows that Trump will win the election with 297 Electoral College votes against 241 votes for Harris. In this scenario, Harris would win only Michigan’s votes, and Trump would win Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Overall, the publication predicts that Trump has a 54% chance of winning this year’s election and Harris has a 46% chance of winning.

According to this forecast, the states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are designated as “swing” or “swing” states, that is, states where each of the 2 candidates has a relatively equal chance of winning. However, Trump has a slight lead in all of these states, except for Michigan.

It can also be seen that by removing swing states from the electoral process, Trump wins with 235 Electoral College votes against 226 votes for Harris.

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