Forbes: It has become impossible to predict the outcome of the American elections

According to Isna, as the voting day for the US presidential election approaches on November 5th (Aban 15), American polling stations are conducting and publishing more polls to predict the winner of this election.

In this regard, “Forbes” magazine, by collecting three polls conducted in recent days, reported that “Kamala Harris” the vice president of the United States and the candidate of the Democratic Party in the presidential elections of this country, with a small difference from “Donald Trump” the former president. America and the candidate of the Republican Party have won in this election.

Despite Harris’ lead, the tight race of two rivals in key states and Trump’s growing popularity at the national level make it impossible to predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

Various polls

According to the Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday, Harris is leading by a margin of three percentage points. Of course, in the previous polls of this institute, Harris had a difference of four percentage points, and this poll indicates a decrease in the popularity of the Democratic Party candidate at the national level.

On the other hand, according to a poll conducted by “ABC” and “Ipsos”, Harris is ahead of his Republican rival by winning 51% of the votes and a difference of 4%.

Of course, according to the “CBS News” and “Yugav” polls, the difference between the Democratic Party candidate and the former US president is much smaller than other polls. According to this poll, Harris has surpassed Trump by a margin of one percentage point.

On the other hand, according to Emerson University’s survey published this Saturday, both candidates are on the same level with 49% of votes. Trump and Harris are equal in this poll, while in the last week’s poll of this university, the Vice President of the United States was ahead of Trump, and now, his lead has disappeared.

This issue has also attracted the attention of Forbes. “For the first time since August, the Democratic Party candidate is not leading in the Emerson University poll,” the magazine wrote in an analysis of the Emerson University poll.

According to the “Times” and “Sinai College” poll, Harris and Trump are in a tight race with 48 percent of the vote. Of course, Harris’s popularity has decreased in this poll as well. In an October Times poll, Harris led Trump by 3 percentage points.

Harris’s decline in popularity has also been repeated in the CNN poll. According to the latest CNN poll published last Friday, the former president of the United States and the current vice president of the United States are on the same level. But in the previous poll of this American channel, Harris was ahead of Trump by a margin of one percentage point.

On the other hand, in the “CNBC” poll, Trump is ahead of his Democratic rival with 48% of the votes and a difference of 2%. The candidate of the Republican Party is leading in the “Wall Street Journal” poll with a margin of 2%.

According to a poll conducted by Forbes magazine, Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points with 51 percent of the vote.

Despite conducting numerous polls by different polling stations in America, Forbes analyst reported: “The 2024 US presidential election is one of the most unpredictable elections in the history of this country, and the outcome of this election cannot be predicted with certainty.”

On the other hand, the newly released statistics show that according to the “Silver Bulletin” survey, Harris is ahead with 48.6 percent of the votes compared to his Republican rival with 47.4 percent. In addition, the results of the “Five Thirty-Eight” Institute’s survey also report the superiority of Harris over Trump with 48.1 votes to 46.6 percent. R

The “New York Times” newspaper has announced the victory of Harris with 49% of the votes compared to Trump with 48% at the national level.

Close race between Trump and Harris in key states

According to the results of the “Five Thirty Eight” research institute, Trump is leading in four out of seven key states. But the New York Times poll shows Harris leading in four out of seven key states.

If the average polls in these key states hold true, Donald Trump will win the Electoral Vote in the Silver Bulletin and FiveThirty-Eight polls, and Kamala Harris will win the Electoral College vote in the New York Times poll.

In US elections, each state has a certain number of Electoral College votes to award to a candidate, whichever candidate wins that state, regardless of how small the margin is, receives all of the state’s Electoral College votes.

Considering the most electoral votes in the states that do not have a clear party orientation and are known as key states, we can first go to the state of Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes, then the states of Georgia and North Carolina with 16 electoral votes, the state of Michigan with 15 electoral votes, the state of Arizona With 11 electoral votes, the state of Wisconsin with 10, followed by the state of Nevada with the lowest number of 6 electoral votes.

For example, if “Donald Trump” or “Kamala Harris” receives a certain number of votes in the 2024 presidential election, the number of votes won’t affect their final victory, but the number of electoral votes they get in each state will be decisive for them. Of these seven key states, Pennsylvania is the most important with 19 electoral votes.

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