Security or prosperity? The inevitable choice of Europe against Russia

According to Isna, the American media reported in an article pointing out that after the end of the Cold War, European governments drastically reduced their military budgets and focused on social programs. This policy was popular among voters at that time, because Europe was facing threats. The foreigner faced little and was under the American security umbrella.

According to the Wall Street Journal, now European countries have realized that the loss of this military power has consequences, because with the beginning of the Ukraine war, tensions similar to the Cold War era are being felt again, and this time the United States is trying to turn its focus to China.

Europe is now thinking about strengthening its military power again, but according to the American media, this path is very difficult for the green continent. According to the Wall Street Journal, many promises have been made to increase military spending, but the defense ministers of European countries admit that they are having trouble meeting their needs.

“This is disappointing,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said recently in response to the failure to meet his requested budget for next year. That means I can’t do some things at the speed that threats demand.” According to the American media, Germany had nearly 800,000 soldiers during the Cold War, but now its soldiers are less than 200,000. Many military bases have also been turned into sports centers and homes for the elderly.

American election pressure

According to the report, the U.S. shares the German defense minister’s frustration because Washington provides two-thirds of NATO’s military spending and both U.S. presidential candidates have said they want Europe to become more self-sufficient in its security spending.

According to this report, if “Donald Trump” the candidate of the Republican Party wins the American elections, the demands for the double independence of Europe will probably become more serious. Trump said earlier this year that the United States will not defend countries that do not meet the minimum standard of allocating 2 percent of GDP to military spending, and that Russia can do “whatever it wants” with these countries. In recent days, Trump even exceeded 2% and said that the European allies of the United States in NATO should spend 3% of their GDP to come close to the share of the United States.

This is while only a few European countries, except for Poland and the Baltic countries, have allocated nearly 3% of their GDP to military affairs. The UK has not made a promise in this regard under the new Prime Minister Kerr Starmer, and Italy and Spain have allocated less than 1.5% of their GDP to the military budget.

Centennial road or decrease in welfare level

Referring to a report last month by the Kiel Institute for World Economics, the Wall Street Journal reported that if Germany continues to rebuild its military power at its current pace, it will take 100 years to bring its artillery stock back to 2004.

Germany currently pays families with children an annual allowance of 3,000 euros, equal to its annual defense budget, which the children of these families have the opportunity to repay by the age of 25. “The idea of ​​dissolving the welfare state so that more money can be allocated to militarism would be disastrous for me,” says German Economy Minister Robert Haubeck about the dilemma of maintaining a high level of welfare or increasing the military budget.

Referring to the rise of far-right currents due to the decrease in the level of welfare in this country, he said: “Social expenses are necessary to maintain the country’s cohesion.”

A German think tank reported that in the early 1980s, the country spent about 3 percent of GDP on military issues, but by 2022, this budget had reached 1.4 percent. Figures show that Germany saved a total of 680 billion euros by reducing the military budget, which was used to rebuild East Germany and establish a welfare state in the region. This think tank announced that Europe as a whole has saved around 1.8 trillion euros since 1991 by not complying with the 2% standard in its military budget.

Opposition to reducing the welfare budget

A few days after the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the German chancellor promised to increase military spending to above 2% of the GDP and announced the establishment of a special investment fund of 100 billion euros to revive the armed forces, but now 2 years later On paper, Germany’s military budget is 1.3% of GDP, and the mentioned investment fund helped to increase this budget to 2%. However, the fund will run out in 2028, and Germany would have to increase its base defense budget by 60 percent that year to keep it above 2 percent, which experts say is impossible.

At the same time, the country’s public social security net reached 1.25 trillion euros last year, which is 27% of GDP, which is more than Denmark, Sweden and the United States. German government officials say the country cannot afford to borrow to increase its spending, and that cutting welfare state spending will also reduce public support for Ukraine.

Far-right and far-left parties are gaining power in Germany with promises to cut the military budget and increase welfare spending such as free school meals, while military projects face local opposition. Not long ago, the “Rheinmetal” armaments company planned to open a new factory in order to send ammunition to Ukraine as well as to fill Germany’s weapons warehouses, but due to strong local resistance and growing public concern about the Russian attack on this factory, Rheinmetall announced It increases the capacity of another of its factories and has given up on building this new factory.

Estimates show that filling the gap in Germany’s defense budget by 2030 will cost up to 103 billion euros, and some experts consider cutting welfare budgets an inappropriate option. A conservative German governor says: “The country needs more defense spending, but it also needs schools, infrastructure and other things. “I think what we need is an increase in the rate of economic growth.”

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