According to the data Google Trends On April 18, 2024 (30 April), the search term popularity Bitcoin halving reached its highest level. Nigeria, Netherlands, Switzerland and Cyprus have shown the most ierest in Bitcoin halving.
We are less than 13 hours away from the Bitcoin halving, but what are the opinions of leading institutions, users and thought leaders about this eve? Bitcoin halving is an eve in which Mining reward Each block is halved. This eve occurs every 4 years and has a significa impact on Bitcoin supply and demand has Promine experts around the world have differe opinions about the effect of having on Bitcoin price have Some believe that this eve will lead to a significa price increase, while others believe that the impact will be short-lived.
Coinbase
Coinbase: With the iroduction of Bitcoin ETF, the role of halvings may become less.
According to the report of the second quarter of 2024 of Coinbase and Glassnode, Curre dynamics of the Bitcoin market Compared to past halvings, it is significaly more mature, which may reduce the direct impact of newly mined bitcoins on the market price. This change is mainly due to increased institutional demand and widespread adoption Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). is
While Miners Adding around 900 Bitcoins to the market daily, Bitcoin ETFs tend to buy more and thus have a significa impact on market supply and liquidity levels. In addition, Bitcoin ETFs may cause large inflows and outflows of capital, thereby affecting market volatility. These changes can significaly affect price stability and market seime, often independe of traditional supply and demand constrais.
In short, the flows of Bitcoin ETFs have had a significa impact on the availability and demand of this digital currency, and this trend will coinue in the future. The report also states that spot bitcoin ETFs have grown the fastest among all exchange-traded funds in history. Allocating a small amou of capital to digital currencies can significaly improve risk-adjusted returns. From April 2019 to March 2024, the traditional return of 40.60 (60% stocks, 40% bonds) was 33.3%. But by adding only 3% of digital currency, the yield increases to 52.9% and by adding 5% of digital currency, the yield increases to 67.0%.
Binance
Binance: Surveys show people are optimistic about Bitcoin halving.
Binance Exchange has predicted the following in its rece report:
1. Bitcoin halving is done with the purpose of regulating the supply of new tokens of this digital currency, which has historically affected the dynamics of the token supply and market seime and its acceptance.
2. Halvings tend to increase the popularity of Bitcoin, leading to higher price growth and adoption. They also fuel debates about blockchain technology, the dynamics of the Bitcoin network, and cryptocurrencies as a distinct asset class.
3. Although historical patterns show that in the mohs following a halving eve, the price of Bitcoin increased and its adoption rate expanded, it is importa to note that the 2024 halving appears to be unprecedeed in several importa ways.
Binance survey
According to the latest Binance research, investors’ ierest in digital currencies is increasingly increasing ahead of the global Bitcoin halving eve. The survey, which was conducted with more than 2,000 Australian cryptocurrency investors, shows that more than 80% of respondes believe the upcoming halving will have a positive impact on the industry, while more than half of them expect an outright increase in the price of bitcoin. They have coins as a result of this eve.
Ben Rose, general manager of Binance Australia and New Zealand, said that the halving had a positive impact on Bitcoin trading and that almost 80% of Australian Binance users plan to increase their Bitcoin holdings in the near future.
Grayskill
Greyscale: Miners may sell their bitcoins in the short term to cover losses and reduce the price.
Based on the analysis of asset manageme company Grayscale, reports indicate that fundameal changes in the balance of supply and demand of Bitcoin, especially with the upcoming halving eve, can have a greater impact on the price of this digital currency.
Historically, halving eves are usually accompanied by a cycle of rising prices. However, a new factor called exchange-traded funds will also affect Bitcoin’s performance at the 2024 halving eve. This report states:
In addition to overall positive on-chain fundameals, Bitcoin’s market structure is favorable for the post-halving price.
The Grayscale report notes that the curre amou of new coins mined per block (mining reward) is 6.25 bitcoins, which is roughly equivale to $14 billion annually based on a price of $43,000. In other words, to maiain curre prices, a buying pressure worth $14 billion must be created in the same period of time. The report says:
After the halving, these demands will be halved: the supply of new coins is 3.125 BCoins per block, which is equivale to a reduction of $7 billion per year, effectively reducing the selling pressure.
After the halving, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125 bitcoins per block. To cope with cost pressure, miners are usually forced to sell some of their mined bitcoins. This issue can increase the supply of Bitcoin in the short term and put downward pressure on the price.
Nine newly launched spot bitcoin ETF products launched by Wall Street may act as hedging tools against miners’ selling pressure, Grayscale says. This report states:
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could significaly absorb the selling pressure and poteially restructure the Bitcoin market by creating a steady source of new demand, which would benefit prices.
Also, the investme banking gia, Goldman Sachs, warned its clies in a report not to rely too much on past Bitcoin halving patterns. This report states:
Historically, the first three halvings have been accompanied by an increase in the price of Bitcoin, although the timing of the all-time high (ATH) has varied significaly. Given the curre macroeconomic conditions, the past should be viewed more cautiously. Direct inferences of cycles and halving effects based on past data can be misleading.
Beatwise
Bitwise: If the previous patterns repeat, Bitcoin will be volatile or even bearish in the short term after the halving.
Asset manageme company Bitwise (Bitwise) also announced that historically, the price trend of Bitcoin in the moh after the halving has not been very satisfactory. In an article published on April 16, Bitwise noted that the price of Bitcoin was almost flat in the moh after the previous 3 halvings, but in the following year, the price has at least tripled.
Among these eves, in the moh after the halving in 2012, Bitcoin grew by only 9%, but in the following year, we saw its price jump by 8,839%. A similar situation occurred in the halving of 2016: Bitcoin fell by 10% a moh later, and in 2017, with an increase of 285%, it reached the ceiling of $20,000; Likewise, in the moh following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin rose 6% and then gained 548% over the next year. Beatwise wrote:
The data are limited, but show an ieresting pattern; Where market prices seem to underestimate the long-term impact of halvings.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan: Bitcoin halving news has been aicipated and we will probably have a temporary drop after the halving.
JPMorgan Chase said in a research note on Tuesday that rece weakness in shares of bitcoin mining companies preses an attractive opportunity for investors ahead of the bitcoin halving. The report considers the curre situation as a strong ery poi for investme in this area.
This report suggests that part of the usual upward trend after the halving is probably already included in the price of Bitcoin.
Specifically, the company announced that overvalued shares of Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Iris Energy (IREN) is bullish because these companies offer attractive relative valuations. Analysts wrote:
As the Bitcoin halving approaches, we expect increased volatility and trading volume in Bitcoin and mining-related stocks.
Bernstein
Bernstein: Temporarily reducing the upward trend but restarting for the price of $150,000
Analysts of the research and brokerage company Bernstein expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory after the halving and reiterated its target price of $150,000 by the end of 2025. Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a note to clies on Wednesday:
We expect Bitcoin’s uptrend to slow down. Additionally, we believe that Bitcoin iegration with physical-backed exchanges as well as partnerships with Registered Investme Advisors (RIAs) will coinue to provide structural demand for Bitcoin through 2025. However, by then, Bitcoin will reach its highest figure of $150,000 in this period.
cryptodatacom
Cryptodatacom: Short-term decline; But an importa eve for the long-term trend of Bitcoin.
The CEO of digital currency company Crypto.com recely expressed his views on the Bitcoin halving eve. He noted that during the eve, the market may experience selling pressure for Bitcoin, but emphasized that the eve will support the price of Bitcoin in the long run.
