Donald Trump; A nightmare for Europe

According to RCO News Agency, “Donald Trump”, the candidate of the Republican Party, and “Kamala Harris”, the candidate of the Democratic Party, are competing with each other for the November elections of the United States, and the possible victory of Trump, the former president of this country, has raised concerns among European officials, as well as Ukraine. The war may lead to a fate that is not very pleasant for this war-torn European country.

“Foreign Affairs” magazine writes in a report: “Europe is likely to be in a difficult spot soon. Until the end of January 2025, the United States of America, as the most important partner of the European continent, may be led by Donald Trump; A former president who has promised to encourage Russia to do whatever it wants with European countries that he says don’t spend enough on defense. The previous term of Trump, the transatlantic relations became dark, and the next term may be even worse.

This American media continues to emphasize: “The results of the American elections are not yet known, but the amount of change that Trump’s possible victory will bring is very formidable and big for Europe.” Trump has warned that he will immediately end the war in Ukraine by cutting off aid to Kiev, and he will probably do this by handing over a significant part of Ukraine’s territory to Russia. And this is just the beginning of the story. “Also, Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, so it’s not inconceivable that he would rescind the U.S. commitment to the defense of Europe.”

European security crisis

Referring to the “European security crisis” if Trump wins, “Foreign Affairs” writes: “There is no reason why Trump cannot act quickly. As commander-in-chief, he can order American troops never to fight for Europe while taking steps to withdraw the United States from NATO military command. As a result, Europe will face a security crisis on a scale not seen since World War II. Without the United States to provide military leadership, European capitals are quickly turning against each other over Ukraine. For example, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe may redouble their commitment to the survival of a strong Ukraine because they fear that a Russian victory would give Moscow an opportunity to regroup with Belarus. Meanwhile, many Western European countries may decide that with the United States out of the picture, the best option is to force Ukraine to make sweeping concessions to Russia; A situation that will collapse the European security alliance.”

The report continues: “To avoid worst-case scenarios, European countries and institutions should start planning now. They must be ready for Trump’s presidency; A situation that could lead to the withdrawal of the United States from Europe. At the same time that the leaders of the European continent are probably facing such a dangerous fate, they must review and deal with difficult issues and questions, and among these things, we can mention these questions; How should European security be structured, who should lead these efforts and what capabilities should Europe acquire?

Referring to these questions, “Foreign Affairs” writes separately: “If the United States separates from Europe, the European countries will have to resort to one of the institutions and institutions that Washington will leave behind to maintain their security alliance.” The easiest and best solution is for Europe to take control of the North Atlantic Council. For obvious reasons, this council should change its direction immediately after the US withdrawal. This council is familiar with all NATO countries in Europe and counts countries such as Norway and Great Britain as members, which are not members of the European Union. Also, if European countries take over the North Atlantic Council, they can change the use of NATO facilities, including the “NATO Defense College”, which is scattered throughout Europe.

Will Poland replace America in Europe?

Regarding who will take the helm of Europe, this American magazine writes: “European countries have basically handed over geopolitical leadership to the United States for the past 75 years, so the decision about who can replace Washington in the security structure Europe is a challenging proposition.

Germany may seem like a likely candidate because it has Europe’s largest economy and population, but Berlin, grappling with its political “uncertainty,” has so far failed to show leadership in the Ukraine war. Germany, which approached Russia before the Ukraine war in 2022 and then joined the United States in limiting aid to Kiev, has lost the trust of many Central and Eastern European countries who fear being on the new front line.

France is probably a better option. France, as one of the 2 nuclear powers in Europe, will necessarily play an important role in the security of Europe if the United States leaves. The French have a decent military, and the country’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has tried to show leadership and good standing in Europe amid the Ukraine war. However, like Berlin, Paris also follows commitments. Like Germany, French officials have been discussing and consulting from right to left about cutting off financial aid to Ukraine for a long time, and because of this, frontline countries may not consider France “more reliable than Germany” when it comes to maintaining European defense.

Considering the political weaknesses of the mentioned countries in the European continent, maybe this continent wants to resort to a less common choice for its security leadership. Poland has emerged as a strong candidate and this large country has a growing economy and has taken the issue of defense seriously even before the Ukraine war. Over the past few years, Warsaw has undertaken the most significant military build-up on the continent, increasing both the share of its gross domestic product it spends on defense and troops stationed on its borders with Belarus and Kaliningrad. Poland also increased its defense budget by 5 percent and surpassed the rest of Europe in terms of GDP for 2025.”

Europe without US nuclear deterrence

“Foreign Affairs” further points out what abilities and capabilities Europe should acquire in the absence of the United States, and writes: “In addition to leadership, Europe has left many necessary defense capabilities to the United States.” “European governments have often spent their limited resources on building a small number of flashy and very expensive pieces of equipment, such as the British Ajax ground vehicle, and weapons production in European countries is highly inefficient.”

This American media emphasizes: “Finally, the European countries that are members of NATO may have to deal with life without the nuclear deterrent of the United States.” This problem can be the biggest problem they will face. “Some proposals on the table in pro-Trump policy circles suggest that the United States would maintain its nuclear umbrella over Europe even as its conventional forces withdraw, but the logic of such a plan is dubious at best.”

“Foreign Affairs” magazine writes at the end of this report: “Time is a precious commodity in war, and today, being on the verge of a war and also the threat of the United States to leave Europe, this continent is wasting time. European countries should prepare for the possibility of Donald Trump’s victory, but they avoid believing such a thing and ignore it. If Trump wins, this refusal and non-acceptance will end; Therefore, the European countries that are members of NATO should think about protecting their people right now.”

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