Kursk attack, opportunity or big mistake?
Ukraine has allocated importa forces and equipme from its army to attack Kursk, and if it does not have a clear strategy in this regard, it will lose not only Russian territory, but also a huge part of its own territory.
According to RCO News Agency, in an article, the American media investigated Ukraine’s attack on the “Kursk” region in Russian territory and reported that this operation could impose heavy costs on the Ukrainian armed forces.
According to Foreign Affairs, this attack temporarily brought Ukraine out of the dark days of the war, but now Kiev must decide to coinue. In this report, poiing out that such an attack has significa risks and costs, it is stated: “This attack has not yet managed to remove a significa part of Russian forces from the eastern regions of Ukraine, and it is still unclear how the Ukrainian leaders iend to use this tactical success to turn io strategic or political achievemes.”
Ukraine has withdrawn some of its best troops from the Eastern Fro to use their skills in the Kursk operation, weakening the other fros. Kiev has started the operation with the hope that it will not lose its other positions in other parts of the fro lines and will not suffer heavy and effective casualties in Kursk. Kiev’s premise is that the benefits of attacking Kursk will outweigh the costs incurred on other fros.
The leaders of the Ukrainian army hoped that Russia would withdraw its forces from the eastern fro and Donetsk, but Alexander Sirsky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, recely announced that Moscow had strengthened its positions on these fros and se its most ready combat units to the Pokrovsk fro. se in Donetsk. According to the American media, Ukraine hopes to use its corol over Kursk as leverage against Moscow in possible future negotiations, but it is difficult for Ukraine to corol this region and with the coming of wier, it will be even more difficult.
Ukrainian forces in Kursk
Uncertain achievemes
According to Foreign Affairs, although Ukraine’s attack on Kursk raised the weak morale of Ukrainian soldiers and stunned Russia, the Ukrainians have not yet been able to destroy the amou of Russian equipme and forces that would affect the coury’s ability to attack. Also, the prisoners taken by Ukraine mainly include border guards, conscripts and Chechen “Akhmat” forces, and many of them have been exchanged with Ukrainian prisoners of war since the beginning of the operation.
Moreover, the attack on Kursk does not destroy Russia’s superiority in terms of numbers of troops and equipme. According to Foreign Affairs, Russia has a clear advaage in terms of manpower, equipme and ammunition and has been able to coinuously corol 750 square miles of Ukrainian territory since October 2023. Even with the Kursk operation, the Russian forces did not stop their advance and coinued on their way.
According to this publication, Russian advances since the beginning of the Kursk attack have put Ukrainian cities at risk, especially the importa and strategic city of Pokrovsk, which is an importa highway, and Ukraine is now forced to partially evacuate it. Ukraine may be forced to double retreat and cede more of its territory to Moscow due to the iensification of Russian pressure. According to Foreign Affairs, fighting in a defensive position is always less expensive, and from this poi of view, Ukraine’s attack on Kursk puts the power and resources of the coury’s armed forces in double danger.
The American media also reported that if the Ukrainian forces se to Kursk do not return, they will not be able to couer Russian advances inside Ukraine, and Ukraine’s position along the fro lines will be weaker than before. The report states: “If this operation could remove a significa part of Russian forces from other fros, the result would be worth the risk, but so far the evidence does not show that.”
Ukraine insists on advancing in Kursk while Russia’s advance has caused the evacuation of eastern Ukrainian cities
That Ukraine attacked Kursk despite all these risks indicates that its leaders felt a strong need to take a new step and take the initiative, a need that may have been triggered by the possibility of Donald Trump winning the US election. and forcing Kiev to negotiate with Moscow. Kiev waed to be in a better position in future negotiations, but Foreign Affairs says that no negotiations were on the horizon, and instead of attacking Kursk, Kiev could have waited uil the policies of the next US administration regarding this war were determined.
According to this report, there are currely no negotiations in which Ukraine was to have the upper hand. In the curre situation, Moscow is not willing to negotiate and will probably coinue its attacks in order to organize an effective couer-operation in Kursk with the onset of wier and the reduction of the camouflage power of the Ukrainian forces due to the reduction of vegetation.
According to Foreign Affairs, Ukraine had other options available at this time of the war. Kiev could focus on defending against the Russian advance, and while reorganizing its army, launch long-range attacks io Russian territory. Ukraine could put pressure on Russia’s military and economic infrastructure, and its new soldiers could be se to the fro lines to strengthen Ukraine’s positions.
Russia finds itself
Although unlike the previous operations, Ukraine acted very secretively this time and surprised Russia by hiding the details of this operation in the first days, but Moscow is now sending reinforcemes to the region and the situation will change in the coming weeks.
So far, Russia has withdrawn part of its forces from the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv fros, while maiaining its offensive operations in the eastern cities of Pokrovsk, Tursk, and Kupyansk. Moscow has prioritized moving its drone strike units because they are faster to relocate and have less impact on Russian offensive operations than infary reserves.
Russian soldier
According to this media, Russia coinues to prioritize offensive operations in Ukraine and is trying to couer the Kursk operation with the least possible force. Moscow is also considering the possibility that the attack on Kursk is not the only planned invasion of Ukraine, and that Kiev has plans to carry out offensive operations in other parts of Russia.
Despite Ukraine’s attacks in Kursk, Russia has managed to get so close to the vital city of Pokrovsk that it is now under Russian artillery fire, which has caused the evacuation of the city’s resides and halted rail operations. According to Foreign Affairs, Russia can put pressure on a larger part of the Ukrainian forces from this poi, and the Ukrainians will be forced to retreat twice in the absence of support forces and limited artillery fire due to the Kursk operation.
Meanwhile, with the organization of more Russian forces and the dispatch of reinforcemes, the casualties of Ukraine in Kursk will also increase. The report states: “Ukrainian forces are establishing and stabilizing their position, and Kiev has shown that it iends to establish some kind of military rule in this region. If Ukraine was to keep corol of Kursk for now, it is likely that this fro will turn io another boring battle.
What is the purpose?
According to American media, the Ukrainian military is also trying to solve its logistical and communication problems and create a wider buffer zone inside Russia, but not much should be expected. The best scenario for Ukraine is that it can limit Russia to relatively small gains in Donetsk and maiain its position in Kursk with limited forces. However, it is likely that in the coming mohs Ukraine will lose a significa amou of land in the east and will have no position in Kursk that it can use as leverage against Moscow, a possibility that The depth of Ukraine’s advance on Russian soil increases.
Moreover, the Kursk operation has shown that Ukraine and its Western backers have not yet agreed on a single strategy. Ukraine’s scattered operations, such as its attacks in Crimea and the attack on Kursk, show the lack of a clear strategy.
The report states: “These changes should lead to a revision of the curre strategy in this war, of course, if there is a strategy.” Foreign Affairs has evaluated Ukraine’s curre attack on Kursk better than this coury’s failed attempt to couerattack in 2023; But while emphasizing that Ukraine did not achieve anything in the 2023 operation, he admits that this coury has not yet provided a clear definition of victory.
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