Trump’s possible conversation with Maduro; Political maneuver or change of strategy?

According to RCO News Agency, the tension between Washington and Caracas has increased significantly in recent months. The arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, the area covered by the US Southern Command, has been assessed to an unprecedented extent and is considered by some analysts to be the largest US military deployment in the Caribbean since the Panamanian operation.

In response to these movements, the government of “Nicolas Maduro” has announced that it has mobilized approximately 200,000 army troops across the country to repel “American threats,” according to the country’s defense minister. Also, Venezuelan officials have spoken of the “huge expansion of defense power”, including the deployment of land, sea, air, missile and civilian forces.

On the other hand, the United Nations has warned about the consequences of this military stalemate; In a recent report, the representatives of this organization asked Washington to exercise “restraint” because the US attacks, according to international organizations, have led to the deaths of dozens of people and could threaten regional security.

Regional governments are against a military attack on Venezuela

In this context, we have discussed the consequences of the recent US threats against Venezuela, the strategy of the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and the upcoming scenarios for the future of this country with Elahe Tahmasabi, a Latin American expert and journalist.

In response to ISNA’s question, “What are the consequences of the recent US threats against Venezuela for the stability of the Latin American region?”, Tahmasbi said: Latin America is facing new threats from the US against Venezuela, which has defined itself as a “zone of peace” for decades and has tried to distance itself from the field of competition between the great powers after experiencing the Cuban Missile Crisis. But the return of the language of “military action” and increased maritime activity in the Caribbean has once again put this fragile architecture under pressure, raising real concerns about border security, waves of migration, economic instability and political polarization across the region.

He stated that “despite serious differences of opinion towards the Maduro government, key governments from Mexico to Brazil have clearly emphasized that a military solution is not acceptable. This unprecedented alignment shows that the region’s historical sensitivity to foreign intervention still has a common point of gravity,” he noted: If these threats turn into a real attack, it can become a new pattern of intervention; Once under the label of fighting drugs, another time under the title of confronting armed groups, and perhaps in the future under the pretext of human rights or energy security. Consolidation of such a model will practically expose any government in the region that is considered non-aligned from Washington’s point of view to the same risk.

Tahmasabi continued: For this reason, what is going on in Venezuela today, at the regional level, is not a temporary crisis but a structural alarm, and Latin America will face the risk of returning to a cycle of militarization and competition of foreign powers. A cycle whose consequences could shape the future of the continent’s security and politics for years to come.

Maduro has raised the cost of any possible US action

This journalist answered the question, “What kind of strategy does Maduro’s reaction to these threats show?” He pointed out: Maduro’s strategy against American threats is based on the calculated display of defense power, internal integration and active regional diplomacy; An approach that deliberately moves the field from the military level to the level of politics and international legitimacy, where he knows that Venezuela has a better chance of containing pressure from Washington.

Emphasizing that “Maduro is well aware that he is considered a tough head of state for Trump, and this knowledge determines the form of his response”, Tahmasabi noted: In practice, he raised the alert level to increase the cost of any possible American action, but he is careful not to lead the crisis to a direct conflict. In recent years, he has filled the circle of power with his most loyal people, and this unity has caused, contrary to the initial idea of ​​the White House, three months of heavy pressure could not separate the army from the government or enable a quick overthrow. This is the structural resistance that has now forced Trump to cautiously plan a dialogue in addition to the threats, because he sees that the speed of realizing his goals has been much lower than the initial estimate.

He continued: At the regional level, Maduro has managed to attract the support of countries that are not necessarily his allies, but consider foreign intervention as a common red line: from Mexico and Brazil to Colombia. He redefines Washington’s threats as an attack on “regional sovereignty,” raising the political cost of military action for the United States.

Negotiations between the United States and Venezuela are facing serious obstacles

This Latin American expert responded to the question, “Is real negotiation between Venezuela and the United States possible and what are the obstacles in front of it?” He said: the driving forces of today’s crisis push back its occurrence rather than making negotiations possible; Although not definitively and finally. The negotiation between Venezuela and the United States is a logical and sustainable solution to the crisis in terms of content, but it faces serious obstacles in practice. As we witnessed, in the middle of negotiations with Iran, a 12-day war broke out against our country, and this is a clear proof of the fact that we are now facing a Trump who is not disinterested in using force beyond the American borders. Therefore, the possibility of talks with Maduro is more like a political maneuver than a real change in strategy, although in the last three months, military pressure and sanctions have not been able to achieve the goals predicted by Washington.

This journalist clarified: On the other hand, Maduro has declared that he is ready for face-to-face dialogue, but not at the cost of accepting threats or aggression, by maintaining internal cohesion, controlling the circle of loyalists and relying on the army that stands by him, contrary to the calculations of the United States. He considers the diplomatic path to be the only legitimate and stable way and emphasized that disputes should be resolved through respect for sovereignty.

He added: Therefore, the totality of political, security and psychological factors, from Washington’s perception of the impending fall, Maduro’s legal cases, the presence of domestic armed groups, to geopolitical competition with China and Russia and Trump’s behavior, have more power than the desire to talk, and in practice lead the way to tension and tactical management of the crisis, and Trump’s discourse turn seeks to reorganize the pressure against Venezuela, not reduce it.

The effect of the return of oil companies to Venezuela will be short-term

This expert on Latin American issues, in response to the question, “How will the return of foreign oil companies like Chevron affect the Venezuelan economy?” He stated: The return of Chevron and other foreign oil companies can undoubtedly reduce the immediate financial pressure of the Venezuelan government and compensate part of the lack of foreign exchange income, but its effect will be limited to the short term. Long-term production capacity faces significant constraints, as many of Venezuela’s oil fields are worn out and in need of extensive infrastructure reconstruction. Realizing the true potential requires significant investment, infrastructure reconstruction and domestic political stability. In addition, legal guarantees and interaction with international sanctions are vital for the continued operation of companies. If these conditions are not met, the return of these companies can increase Venezuela’s economic and political dependence on foreign actors and create long-term risks for the country’s sovereignty and independence.

The army and popular forces play a central role in maintaining Maduro’s position

Tahmasabi also stated about the role of the popular forces and the army in maintaining Maduro’s position in the current situation: In the current situation, the army and the popular forces play a central role in maintaining Maduro’s position. The Venezuelan army, with about 123,000 active forces, in addition to a wide network of popular militias, is the main pillar of internal order and security. Despite some wear and tear of equipment and financial constraints, Caracas still relies on its deterrence capability with the deployment of defense systems, short-range missiles and mobilized forces.

He stated that “in recent months, Maduro has tried to stabilize the cohesion and loyalty of the military structure by deploying large-scale forces and at the same time expand weapons training to the underprivileged in order to send a clear message of defense readiness”, he said: the idea of ​​relying on popular forces and the possibility of transitioning to the model of irregular resistance or long-term war is also part of this deterrence framework; An approach whose main goal is to increase the cost of any foreign action and we necessarily enter into a full-scale war.

There is a possibility of limited and targeted attacks on Venezuela

This journalist answered the question, “Given the recent developments, what are the possibilities of Venezuela’s future scenario?” He noted: Considering that we are facing a Trump who is interested in the geographical expansion of the war and has provided all the reasons for it with the largest US military deployment in the Caribbean since the Panama War, there is a possibility of limited and targeted attacks on the strategic centers of Venezuela, sabotage operations and even the assassination of senior security and political officials.

He continued: At the same time, although the United States is seeking to overthrow Maduro and exerts extensive military and political pressure, but according to the American experts, it does not have a clear and operational plan to govern Venezuela after leaving him, and this action will bring a very high cost to Washington.

Tahmasabi pointed out: Maduro is trying to maintain relative stability by relying on the loyalty of the army, the mobilization of popular forces, and the support of some of the countries in the region, and any change of power without internal agreement and international support will bring the risk of severe instability, chaos, and economic and social difficulties. This situation shows that in the future Venezuela will most likely enter a period of sustained tension, successive testing of red lines and even some contacts or limited behind-the-scenes negotiations; Although the occurrence of a large-scale confrontation cannot be ruled out, at least at the current stage, the available evidence shows that a full-scale war does not match Washington’s declared and non-declared motives.

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