US government shutdown crisis; Will the 35-day record be broken? – Mehr news agency RCO News Agency

Mehr News Agency, International Group, Hasan Shokohi Nesab: In the early hours of Wednesday, October 1, 2025 (9th Mehr), the American federal government entered a massive shutdown after Congress failed to approve the budget bill, which has lasted for about 3 weeks. The shutdown, which is considered the third longest in American history, has resulted in the suspension of government services, forced furloughs of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, and widespread disruptions to government agencies.

Many observers and officials, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, have warned that this could become the longest shutdown in American history. According to statistics, the record for the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States was held by the “Bill Clinton” government for many years with 21 days, but in 2018-2019, Trump set a new record by shutting down the government for 35 days, and now the possibility of breaking this record in the second Trump administration is not out of mind.

The causes and roots of the shutdown of the Trump administration

The shutdown of the American government in the current situation is rooted in various issues, the most important of which are mentioned below;

Political deadlock over the budget

The current government shutdown began when the Senate failed to pass two bipartisan budget bills in consecutive votes. While the House of Representatives passed a temporary funding resolution by a vote of 217 to 212, the Senate was unable to come to an agreement and the federal government entered into a shutdown at midnight on October 1st. The main point of contention is Democrats’ insistence on extending the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) enhanced subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. These subsidies, which about 22 million Americans use to reduce health insurance costs, will cost about $1.5 trillion over a decade.

Government downsizing policies

Donald Trump, who will take office for a second term in January 2025, has taken an aggressive approach to reducing the size of the federal government. In his statements, he has announced that he will use the government shutdown as an opportunity to cut funding for leftist projects and shrink the federal bureaucracy. White House Office of Management and Budget Director Ras Voot plays a key role in this strategy. He has told Republican lawmakers that the administration may begin laying off federal employees during the shutdown. Voot also announced that nearly 10,000 people may receive eviction notices. Under the title of improving government efficiency, the Trump administration has taken measures that critics consider to be targeted and political. As of August, the Office of Personnel Management had reportedly announced that about 300,000 federal employees would leave the government by the end of the year, 80 percent of which were voluntary, but that would mean about 60,000 involuntary layoffs.

What is the internal and external impact of the government shutdown?

The government shutdown has had a direct and heavy impact on federal employees. According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, up to 750,000 government employees face mandatory furloughs and will not receive any pay until the budget is passed. Meanwhile, about 700,000 other workers whose services are considered essential continue to work without pay. A few days ago, for the first time, federal employees did not receive their salaries, which has put severe financial pressure on them and their families.

The government shutdown has disrupted a wide range of public services. Also, air traffic control has faced serious problems. The Aerospace Industries Association warned that the shutdown would disrupt new programs, stifle innovation and slow down the Federal Aviation Administration. In addition, the issuance of passports and visas has faced significant delays.

In addition, the government shutdown has significant economic effects. Experts estimate that the shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 0.15 percent. Considering that the shutdown continues, this number can increase. Additionally, the federal budget deficit, which will reach $1.775 trillion in fiscal year 2025, continues to raise concerns. Referring to this figure, the Trump administration argues that it is necessary to cut costs and shrink the government.

One of the most controversial aspects of the shutdown is the Trump administration’s decision to cut or suspend funding for infrastructure projects in Democratic-controlled cities. On the first day of the shutdown, Ross Vott announced that about $18 billion in funding for New York’s infrastructure projects, including the Hudson Tunnel and the Second Street subway, had been suspended. Also, $8 billion has been cut from climate-related projects in 16 states that voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Additionally, $2.1 billion in funding for Chicago infrastructure projects has also been suspended.

The government shutdown does not only have domestic effects, but it also affects the foreign policy and the international position of America. In the middle of this crisis, Trump met with Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House and had a phone call with Vladimir Putin. The diplomatic moves come at a time when much of the federal government is shut down and State Department employees are on mandatory leave.

A shutdown would also negatively impact foreign aid programs, military operations, and America’s ability to respond to international crises. This can weaken America’s position on the world stage and reduce the trust of allies.

Examining 3 possible scenarios and the future horizon

After almost three weeks of the US government shutdown, there are several scenarios for the end of this crisis:

First, the bipartisan agreement

The most likely solution is for a bipartisan group of senators to reach a deal that includes temporary funding and some sort of guarantee to discuss enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. However, no significant progress has been made so far.

Second, the withdrawal of one of the parties

If public pressure or economic consequences become so great, one side may be forced to back down. Given that the Senate has failed 10 times in trying to pass a budget bill, this is unlikely.

Third, the continuation of the shutdown

If the impasse continues, the shutdown could approach or even break the record for the longest U.S. government shutdown (35 days in 2018-2019). Overall, the current situation reflects a deep political divide in America that goes beyond budget issues. The government shutdown is a symbol of the inability of the two main parties to find common ground and prioritize national interests over party interests.

By using the shutdown as leverage to advance its goals of reducing the size of government, the Trump administration has shown that it is willing to pay heavy social and economic costs. Cutting funding for infrastructure projects in Democratic cities, mass layoffs of federal employees, and suspension of public services are all part of this strategy.

Democrats, on the other hand, have shown they are unwilling to back down on an issue that affects millions of Americans by insisting on extending the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies. They argue that these subsidies are necessary to protect the health of citizens and cannot be sacrificed for political games.

As a result, this shutdown will have long-term economic, political, social and international consequences for America.

in terms of economicThe longer the shutdown, the greater its impact on economic growth. Reduced GDP growth, disruption of government services, and reduced public confidence can have lasting consequences.

in terms of politicalThis crisis can affect the mid-term elections and even the next presidential elections. History has shown that the party blamed for the government shutdown usually takes a hit in the next election.

in terms of social Also, pressure on federal employees, disruption of public services and cut off of social assistance can increase public dissatisfaction and reduce people’s trust in government institutions.

from the point of view international Also, the shutdown of the US government can further reduce the trust of Washington’s allies and encourage competitors to exploit this situation.