Delphi Digital Analysis: Bitcoin has started to repeat the price trend between 2015 and 2017

A recent report by Delphi Digital examines the relationship between the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin prices and macroeconomic trends. According to the research firm, the current price performance of Bitcoin and the structure of the digital currency market are repeating the pattern that we saw before the bull market started in the past years.

According to Cointelegraph, Delphi Digital analysts believe that the current concentration of the price trend in the $30,000 range, along with indicators pointing to Bitcoin reaching its all-time high by the fourth quarter of 2024, is similar to the trend between 2015 and We witnessed it in 2017.

The impact of the economic cycle on the performance of Bitcoin

Investigating the impact of the economic cycle on Bitcoin’s performance in the Digital Delphi analysis draws attention to the cyclical nature of the digital currency market. This cyclicality is visible through the repeatability of the time between peaks and troughs, periods of price recovery to the peaks of previous cycles, and the timing of price increases to peaks in new cycles. Using Bitcoin as a benchmark, Delphi outlines the outline of the cryptocurrency market cycle.

These 4-year cycles include Bitcoin reaching a new price level, decreasing by about 80% in value, and then reaching a price floor about a year later. This cycle is followed by the 2-year trend of price increase and reaching the previous highest level and finally the price increase in the last year, which will lead to reaching a new record.

The report also points to a surprising correlation between Bitcoin price peaks and business cycle changes as measured by the ISM Manufacturing Index.

This indicator also often rises to its peak during the time when the price of Bitcoin, the number of active addresses, the volume of transactions and fees are at their highest. On the other hand, with the improvement of the business cycle, the level of activity in the network also increases.

This report emphasizes the role of bitcoin halving in these cycles. The last two halvings happened about 18 months after the bottom of the Bitcoin price and about 7 months before the new price stagnation was recorded. According to this historical pattern, Bitcoin will witness a new price peak until the fourth quarter of 2024, which is in harmony with the next halving time.

Bitcoin has started to repeat the price trend between 2015 and 2017

This report also indicates that the current market trend is very similar to the period between 2015 and 2017. The alignment of market behavior with economic indicators and historical trends shows that the current stage is similar to the time of increased investment risk and potential growth; Just as we experienced in the previous period.

Delphi Digital notes that market trading patterns, particularly in the S&P 500, are very similar to Bitcoin’s price trend in 2015-2017. Even in times of economic instability such as an earnings recession, these patterns persist and reflect market sentiment.

The consistent pattern of Bitcoin’s price cycle, its coordination with macroeconomic changes, and the impending halving in 2024 all support this hypothesis.

The report also points out the similarity between the negative outlook for global economic growth during 2015-2016 and the recent period in 2021-2022. Factors such as changes in the global liquidity cycle and the strength of the US dollar, which reflect past events.

Delphi Digital notes how gold’s performance under devaluation concerns at the time bears striking similarities to the current period. These parallels reinforce the argument that macroeconomic conditions follow a familiar path.

A possibly optimistic outlook for the digital currency market

This report provides compelling evidence that the cyclical pattern of the cryptocurrency market is a reflection of broader economic changes. Delphi’s prediction of Bitcoin price reaching a new all-time high by Q4 2024 is historically in line with halving patterns. This repeatability over time, along with indicators such as the ISM and the expectation of a resumption of liquidity cycles, reinforces the idea of ​​repeating a cycle similar to what happened in 2015-2017.

Bitcoin’s future halving in 2024 also gives more credibility to the prediction of a possible bull market until the fourth quarter of the same year. While this report is not without its risks and flaws, the overall market outlook over the next 12 to 18 months looks promising given the increasing catalysts and historical record.