Model design to predict underground water level changes after earthquake – | Iranian and world news

Dr. Hossein Rashidi Goya, a geophysical and geological researcher, and a doctorate graduate, with the guidance of Dr. Homayoun Kamaiba, a member of the faculty of Amirkabir University of Technology, succeeded in designing a forecasting model of groundwater level changes. The study was conducted in the Sar -e -Pul -e -Zahab area following the November 5 earthquake and is an important step in expanding the boundaries of geological knowledge.

Referring to the scientific vacuums of the earthquake’s effect on groundwater resources, Rashidi Goya said: Although in many parts of the world, groundwater fluctuations were reported after the earthquake, the exact mechanism of these changes remained unknown. On the other hand, predicting these fluctuations was always impossible. The research began to fill the same scientific vacuum and provide a model for predicting aquaculture behavior after the earthquake.

He added: “This study began by investigating the changes in water levels in the Sar -e -Pol -e -Zahab plain after the earthquake, in which the maximum decrease in water levels was recorded by 1.5 meters and an increase of up to 1.5 meters.” For more accurate analysis, two physical aquifer models were designed, one simulating the effect of vibration and the other in the effect of a fault in a aquifer. These models are made using glass chambers with layers of soil and sand, and their results identified new parameters in the aquifer behavior.

The Amirkabir University of Technology graduated added: In the following route, 2 increased agents and 2 groundwater levels were modeled in the Arcgis software environment. These factors included geological data, hydrology, geophysical, satellite images, and so on.

According to him; AHP methods and fuzzy logic were used to combine and analyze these factors, and the final model was validated with earthquake data. Rashidi Goya emphasized: This model not only enables predicting water level fluctuations in the wells after earthquakes, but also in crisis management, monitoring of the country’s water resources and even in the field of earthquake forecasting research. For the first time in the country, such a model has been able to accurately predict areas with earthquake increased or decreased groundwater levels.

“The biggest problem was the collection and processing of a variety of geophysical data, geology and satellite images,” he said. The construction of accurate physical models and data analysis also required interdisciplinary expertise and the use of a variety of software. The project lasted about two years.

Rashidi noted: The study has so far led to the publication of an ISI article, a scientific study article and the preparation of another ISI article for published. In these articles, the AHP hybrid model and fuzzy logic and correlation of parameters such as the thickness of the border of capillary, the electrical resistance of juicy layers and psychology are introduced with water level changes.

Rashidi Goya went on to refer to the various applications of this study and said that the project can be used in the areas of groundwater management in earthquake -stricken areas, establishment of hydrogenological earthquake warning systems, forecasting of wells after earthquakes and identification of earthquake -sensitive wells.

He added: “The continuation of the research path can be followed in two areas; One is the development of groundwater changes and the other is the design of vibration -sensitive sensors and temperature sensors to help with earthquake forecast, but unfortunately, given the current status of research projects, these ideas are difficult to implement.

The researcher said the cost of conducting the research project in the academic phase was about 2 million tomans, but if the executive and industrial phase enters, the costs will increase significantly.

Referring to the competitive benefits of the project, he said, similar studies have been carried out in Italy, Japan and New Zealand, but their focus was mainly on observing water level changes, not modeling for its prediction. The present project has high accuracy, development capability in earthquake -prone areas of Iran and indigenous knowledge. It should be noted that the researcher at Amir Kabir University of Technology invents two inventions related to the cleansing of oil spots at sea level.